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Daily Analysis — Monday, February 03, 2025 “Tariff Man in da house!”

1. Context & Review of Overnight Action

After hitting an intraday high on Friday, the market sold off sharply into the close on news of additional tariffs (the “Trump Tariff Tweet”). The S&P 500 cash (SPX) finished around 6040. Over the weekend, the announced tariffs were confirmed, as anticipated by many traders. On Sunday evening (Feb. 02), futures slid around 2%, reflecting the market’s reaction to the official announcement. The E-mini S&P (ES) traded in a 47-point band (5935–5982). The market opened near 5982 Sunday night, sold off, and is now hovering around 5940–5950 in premarket trade (as of roughly 6:15 AM).

2. Macro Drivers & Upcoming Data

A raft of employment data is due this week, along with several Fed officials scheduled to speak. Expect heightened intraday volatility around these events. On Monday (02/03), ISM Global is released at 9:45 AM and ISM Prices plus PMI at 10:00 AM. These could drive short-term mov

Tech continues to weigh on U.S. stocks, even as about 80% of S&P 500 names trade higher.  

The S&P 500 is slightly up after briefly dipping negative, with only info tech in the red. The Magnificent Seven is pressuring the index despite solid earnings from Tesla and Meta—both stocks are up but well off their intraday highs. Microsoft is the biggest drag by market cap after disappointing cloud guidance, while Nvidia is also lower.  

Apple is slipping ahead of earnings, signaling some jitters despite optimism that DeepSeek could drive an iPhone upgrade cycle and re-accelerate growth.  

The broader gains in the S&P 500, despite a muted overall move, suggest investors remain optimistic about the economy. That said, lingering concerns over big tech continue to cast a shadow after Monday’s rout.

Here we can see QQQ current option positioning using our models. While calls are still strong you are starting to see a lot puts coming in