InvestmentGuru

Good morning!

Futures are holding green. Yesterday was a tug-of-war between soft inflation and strong growth — growth won the afternoon. Semis are leading again on the $MU read-through, but everyone is really waiting for tomorrow’s jobs report. Soft payrolls + soft PCE = October hike risk fades and Q4 gets a tailwind. Hot data = yields could push higher and trigger a deeper pullback before a year-end rally. Q4 can be tricky, so stay flexible.

Our long holds: $CRDO $MRVL $AAOI $ON $AVGO $INTC + NeoCloud — $MU earnings support the AI infrastructure thesis, so I’m comfortable holding. $GOOG remains my big AI bet for 2027; $357 breakout could accelerate.

Levels I’m watching:

$AMZN $255–260 R

$TSLA $358–362 R — take profits on calls if we reach it.

$SPCX $157 breakout needed for the next move.

$CRWV — added calls yesterday; $90–93 = profit-taking zone.

$APP — fundamentals remain strong, but technicals are weakening; any meaningful bounce and I’ll look to exit.

$TE — if you added around $3.60, $4.

Anthropic's $518B Compute Bet: Who Wins From the AI Buildout?

Anthropic confidentially filed for its IPO back in June. But the bigger story for AI investors isn't the listing — it's the prospectus.

According to the confidential prospectus reviewed by Reuters, Anthropic has committed at least $518 billion to cloud, compute, and AI infrastructure over roughly the next decade. About 80% of it is non-cancelable — they pay whether they use the capacity or not.

That is one of the largest AI buildout commitments on record. And it's coming from a company that did $4.6B in revenue last year.

The growth story

Anthropic generated about $4.6B in 2025 revenue — roughly 12x the prior year. But growth is coming at enormous cost: compute and infrastructure spending hit $7.33B (more than half of its $12.65B in operating expenses), the operating loss topped $8B, and the reported net loss was about $42B — though roughly $34B of that was a financing-related accounting charge, not cash out the door.

Anthropic'

$MU EARNINGS WEDNESDAY — THIS ONE MATTERS

Micron reports Sept. 30 after the close, and the headline Q4 numbers may not be what moves the stock.

Guidance:
• Revenue: $50B ± $1B
• Non-GAAP EPS: $31 ± $1
• Gross margin: ~86%

Consensus: ~$51.2B revenue / ~$31.6 EPS — meaning the market is looking for a beat above the top end of guidance.

But the real focus is FY27 guidance.

HBM4: high-volume shipments underway for its lead customer, with additional customers in qualification.
Pricing: DRAM/NAND pricing and whether margins can remain around 86%.
Capex: higher FY27 spending could raise concerns about future memory supply.
Demand durability: 16 strategic customer agreements representing ~$22B of expected commitments/deposits strengthen the longer-term story.
FCF: Q3 generated an impressive $17.6B.

The market already knows Micron is making serious money.

The question is how long this cycle can last.

A strong Q4 + bullish FY27/HBM outlook could change the conversation. A big beat with cautious forward g