$MU EARNINGS WEDNESDAY — THIS ONE MATTERS
Micron reports Sept. 30 after the close, and the headline Q4 numbers may not be what moves the stock.
Guidance:
• Revenue: $50B ± $1B
• Non-GAAP EPS: $31 ± $1
• Gross margin: ~86%
Consensus: ~$51.2B revenue / ~$31.6 EPS — meaning the market is looking for a beat above the top end of guidance.
But the real focus is FY27 guidance.
HBM4: high-volume shipments underway for its lead customer, with additional customers in qualification.
Pricing: DRAM/NAND pricing and whether margins can remain around 86%.
Capex: higher FY27 spending could raise concerns about future memory supply.
Demand durability: 16 strategic customer agreements representing ~$22B of expected commitments/deposits strengthen the longer-term story.
FCF: Q3 generated an impressive $17.6B.
The market already knows Micron is making serious money.
The question is how long this cycle can last.
A strong Q4 + bullish FY27/HBM outlook could change the conversation. A big beat with cautious forward guidance could be a very different story.
With $MU trading at roughly 6x forward earnings, the market is clearly questioning the durability of peak-cycle earnings.
Wednesday’s guidance > Wednesday’s headline EPS.