Market update:
Hopefully everyone is enjoying the weekend.
The market is testing conviction, patience, and risk management.
We are heading into a new week after four consecutive weeks of declines. The broader trend remains bearish, but one important level is still holding. The question now is whether buyers can defend it or whether another wave of selling takes us lower.
Thursday was a reminder of how quickly sentiment can change. The S&P suffered its worst single-day decline since April, with heavy selling volume. Friday brought some relief, but the bounce came on lighter volume. That tells us sellers still have the upper hand. Several beaten-down names, including $IREN, $SMR, $OKLO, $VST and $SPCX, $TSLA bounced sharply, but I would treat this as an oversold technical recovery rather than a confirmed reversal.
Here are the levels I am watching closely.
$SPY closed Friday at $735.36, holding above its 200-day moving average near $730.19. This is the most important line in the sand right now.
$730: Critical 200-day support. A decisive close below it would weaken the longer-term trend.
$735–740: Immediate recovery zone.
$740–745: Reclaiming this area with stronger volume would be the first meaningful improvement.
Until buyers reclaim resistance and establish higher lows, I don’t see a reason to aggressively chase rallies.
Earnings are no longer enough.
One of the biggest lessons from this earnings season is that beating estimates does not automatically mean a stock goes higher. Guidance, cash flow, profitability, customer commitments and funding requirements are becoming more important than headline revenue growth.
The market is separating companies with real demand and sustainable business models from those depending heavily on financing and future expectations. This distinction will matter even more across AI infrastructure, data centers, energy and emerging technology.
Fear is elevated, but capitulation is not confirmed.
The $VIX remains in the mid-20s after Thursday’s spike. Put/call activity and bearish sentiment are elevated, but we haven’t necessarily reached the kind of extreme panic that historically creates a durable bottom.
Monday is day three of this potential stabilization attempt. What I want to see is whether Friday’s lows hold, selling volume continues to decline and the $VIX starts cooling below 20. Without those developments, another relief rally can quickly turn into another selling opportunity.
This week’s catalysts deserve attention.
We have another busy earnings calendar:
Monday: $RKLB, $ABCL, $HIMS and $QUBT.
Tuesday: $CRWV, $FLY, $SATL and several quantum names.
Thursday: $NBIS, $TE, $CBRS and $FIGR.
The jobs report has also strengthened the case for a December rate hike, keeping interest-rate expectations and bond yields firmly in the picture. That adds another layer of uncertainty for high-beta and speculative growth stocks.
My strategy for the coming week
I am prioritizing capital preservation over aggressive buying. Cash is still a position, and patience is an advantage in a market where volatility can punish even good entries.
I want to see three things before becoming more constructive:
$SPY holds its 200-day moving average.
Selling pressure fades and volume contracts on further tests of the lows.
$VIX moves below 20 while market breadth starts improving.
We don’t need to catch the exact bottom. We need to recognize when the market is giving us better odds.
There will be opportunities again, especially in quality names that have been pulled down with the broader market. But survival, discipline and protecting capital come first.
The objective isn’t to predict every move. It’s to stay positioned, stay patient and be ready when the market finally gives us confirmation.
I will do all updates tomorrow morning as Tonight busy in Diwali 🪔 celebrations.
🙏