Good Morning!
Friday Market Outlook — Volatility, Key Levels & What I’m Watching
We could see another volatile session today. This has been one of the most challenging earnings periods in recent history, with disappointing reactions to several major earnings reports adding pressure to an already fragile market. The crypto hack and subsequent Bitcoin weakness have further increased risk aversion, while the macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavourable.
However, I want everyone to look beyond the headlines and focus on what the market is actually doing.
1. Is the broader market breaking down?
For now, I still consider the market range-bound rather than being in a confirmed broader downtrend. One important level I am watching is $SPY $755 on a closing basis.
If SPY closes below $755, particularly with expanding selling pressure, that could signal a more significant deterioration in market structure and change my outlook.
On the other hand, if the market holds above its recent lows, we could see a relief bounce today or early next week.
2. Watch the recent lows in individual stocks.
One indicator I am paying close attention to is whether stocks are making fresh lows or managing to hold their recent support levels.
For example:
$CRWV: Recent low around $51.
$NBIS: Recent low around $150.
$BE: Recent low around $189.
If these stocks continue holding above their recent lows despite today’s volatility, it could indicate consolidation rather than another leg down.
However, $INTC and $AMZN remain under pressure following their earnings reactions, and I would not be surprised to see further weakness or new lows.
$GOOG is another important one. I want to see it hold the $278 area today. Stability here would help confirm that immediate selling pressure is easing, although it would not yet establish a confirmed reversal.
3. Stocks and levels I am watching for potential bounce opportunities
These are conditional levels, not automatic buy signals. I want to see how each stock reacts around support before considering an entry.
$TSLA — $387–389
Holding this zone keeps the short-term uptrend structure intact. If support holds, the stock remains interesting for further upside.
$META — $610
Holding $610 keeps META in the potential bounce-back category. We can look for a trading opportunity if buyers step in and confirm support.
$GOOG — $273–278
This is an important support zone. If it stabilizes here and selling pressure fades, there could be an opportunity to play a relief bounce. A sustained break below this zone would change the setup.
$INTC — $65–68
First support area I am watching following the earnings sell-off. If buyers defend this zone, a technical bounce becomes possible. Given the severity of the reaction, I would wait for confirmation rather than rush in.
$AAPL — $343–346
One of the stronger-looking stocks in this environment. If Apple holds this support zone, the technical structure remains constructive, with potential room to challenge new all-time highs and eventually the $355–360 area.
I don’t want anyone getting carried away by a green opening or attempting to catch every dip. We need to distinguish between:
- Stocks consolidating above their recent lows.
- Stocks experiencing temporary earnings-related selling.
- Stocks breaking important support with deteriorating fundamentals or technical structures.
If the broader market holds its recent lows and selling pressure eases, we could see a bounce today or early next week.
If SPY loses $755 on a closing basis, we need to reassess risk.
One thing I want everyone to remember: In this market, strategy matters more than entry price alone.
Having the right stock but the wrong position size, poor timing or no exit plan can still lead to unnecessary losses. Keep some cash available. Scale into positions rather than committing everything at once. Avoid chasing and respect your invalidation levels.
Thanks 🙏