Good morning!
After Thursday's brutal selloff, AI and semiconductor stocks are bouncing sharply in premarket, with Nasdaq futures up about 1.5% while Dow futures lag, so this is a tech-led rebound rather than a broad recovery. The strongest moves are coming from the most beaten-down areas: memory, semiconductors, optical and connectivity, and NeoCloud names are all up solidly after steep losses on Thursday, but I'm treating today as Day 2 of this selling leg, and the bounce still has to prove itself. I want to see strength hold beyond the first hour, leadership broaden past a handful of oversold names, the Nasdaq reclaim key technical levels, and genuine buying volume rather than another round of short covering. In the power and energy space, Vistra delivered a strong quarter with raised guidance, a reminder that electricity generation and grid capacity are critical parts of the AI infrastructure story, though its net income includes a large unrealized hedge gain, so adjusted EBITDA is the cleaner measure of operating performance. The biggest macro catalyst is the October jobs report at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus near 65,000 payrolls, unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 0.3%. A stronger print could reinforce higher-for-longer rate concerns, while a weaker one could revive hopes for easing, though an excessively weak number would raise growth worries, so expect volatility around the release and a read-through to the December Fed decision. I remain constructive on AI infrastructure over the long term, but short-term price action has changed as the market reprices risk, capital spending expectations, financing costs and valuations, and not every AI-related company will emerge equally strong from this correction. I would rather miss the first 5% of a recovery than buy into a rally that fails by the close, so today's plan is to protect capital, avoid chasing gaps, watch the 8:30 data, and let the closing price confirm whether buyers are truly returning. For next few days I have off so will do live updates during trading hours more than PM or AH.