BIG DAY TOMORROW — FOMC DECISION
This FOMC is different.
The market is positioned for a 25bp rate hike, but with $SPY already sitting near the 757–758 breakout-support zone, tomorrow’s reaction could set the tone for the next few weeks.
What I’m watching:
- 25bp hike + hawkish → yields up, $QQQ/small caps under pressure, $SPY could lose 757 and test 750–752
- 25bp hike + one and done tone → yields could cool and we could see a relief rally, with 765–770 back in play
- Hold → potentially a sharp initial risk-on reaction, but the market will focus heavily on why the Fed held
- 50bp hike → tail-risk scenario and potentially a much more aggressive risk-off reaction
The rate decision itself may not be the biggest catalyst.
The dot plot + press conference + guidance for future meetings will likely matter more than the 25bp move itself.
And then we have triple witching Friday, adding another layer of positioning and volatility. Tomorrow could be a headline-driven, two-way market.
NFA. DYOR.