Ethereum - Very Long Cycles
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NASDAQ recorded the largest-ever point loss (not percentage) on Friday.
What a day, what a week!
This is what subscribers said on Friday:
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NASDAQ 100 Detrended Seasonality
It looks like $NDX responded to the seasonality pattern right on schedule.
S&P 500 Update - Good week [for the bears]
Weekly reversal candle - can be seen in many indexes worldwide
![S&P 500 Update - Good week [for the bears] Weekly reversal candle - can be seen in many indexes worldwide](https://images.slice-app.io/images/public?page=%2Fbravocycles%2Fposts%2Fs-p-500-update-good-week-for-the-bears-weekly-reversal-candle-can-be&key=726e01fc5caf991786d73700992fdb0f3667740e7ecd290e8be29466170b2412&w=960&q=82&fit=inside&fmt=webp)
Staples and Healthcare holding up well today
Seems this week we've seen both of these sectors starting to wake up. Investors might be looking for a place to rotate profits if they feel the markets have been exhausted. There's still a lot of speculation going on with Space X and liquidity and what that would look like or if it will be another massive catalyst.
The entire global rate cycle has flipped from cuts to hikes.
For about 15 years, the reflex everyone learned was simple. When things get shaky, central banks cut. They print, they ease, they backstop the system, and asset prices go up. That's the world we've been trading in since 2008. It's the muscle memory behind every buy-the-dip instinct in the market.
That's not the world anymore. A large majority of the world's central banks are now overshooting their inflation targets, and the Street is pricing hikes, not cuts. Across the board.
Start with the Fed. No cuts are expected this year, and the market is now starting to price in a small chance of hikes by year-end. Trend and trimmed-mean inflation gauges have stalled out around 3% and headline CPI is drifting toward 4%. The June 17 meeting is the first one chaired by Kevin Warsh, and he's a genuine wildcard. He's signaled a more dovish, smaller-balance-sheet philosophy, but he's walking into rising inflation on day one. What he says will
Crazy how consistent the VIX is following the 2007-09 fractal
double bottom is due tomorrow but with the move down today that might be it now for the vix low
SPX Update
- SPX is in the ideal range for red ii
- But there is also that upper gray resistance line at the gap
- The bounce is still in 3 waves, but it is getting an impulsive look. Though, looking at the 5-min chart, it looks best as a 3-3-5 correction, so far.
VIX
- VIX is likely completing a small orange ending diagonal (ED), wedge, as some people call it
- Expect a sharp reversal after the ED completes
I've talked about my new cycle plan quite a bit on Twitter already, discussing how I'm waiting for that RSI higher low (or prices to drop below 55ish) to start DCA-ing again.
It's still early to draw up the exact planning; but I'd estimate it will look something like this. The sell box will shift based on where the market finds its bear market lows; but this'll give you a rough idea of my plans for the next few years.
Should come as no surprise: buying relatively cheap, waiting for a year or two, and slowly offloading the coins at a premium.
Keeping it simple :)
WARNING: Bitcoin is Losing Long-Term Uptrend Channel
This is using the BTC CME chart just because its cleaner, but the channel can be drawn on any BTC chart
Losing such a major long-term channel and uptrend line can be pretty nasty
Per Hurst Cycle Theory, this could be the the breakdown of a VTL that tells us we can start to prepare for a cyclical low to be in
It would still take up to a few months, but it is getting closer and closer
Q&A session
Kindly ask if you have any questions around your portfolio companies
The only buy set up i see is a 30 minute orderblock at the 618 retrace
Take out the lows and 55k to 47,700 would be a target
BTC Update
- This was likely just circle-iii of 5.
