BHEL - Rolled straddle from 255 to 265, put hedge from 230 to 250.
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$ROSE - Definitely thought this one had more upside but glad to have closed in profit while up. Looking more like a M pattern with a double top and now at a support that if breaks takes us down to $.14. So not ready to get back into it but at the lower support I would definitely like to get back in. That would hopefully align with crypto as a whole showing some life.
Big gaps down on HYG and JNK, as we were expecting. Along with EMB. Risk off move is about to really accelerate now
The Contrarian Oil Trade
Everyone's been bullish oil on Iran tensions.
Strikes seemed imminent.
Risk premium was baked in.
The Reality:
RSI topped 70... and MFI over 80...
Both were OVERBOUGHT.
What Happened:
- OILU spiked to $34 on Iran fears
- US-Iran talks now scheduled for Turkey this week
- Price crashed -6.93% to $30.50 today
- Geopolitical risk premium evaporating
When everyone is bullish on a narrative (Iran strike!), check your indicators.
RSI approaching 70, MFI approaching 80 = overbought.
Small position, larger payoff. Fade the narrative when indicators flash overbought. You don't need to catch the exact top. A small short position with defined risk can pay off big when the narrative unwinds like it did today.
Indicators > Headlines.
I bought copper (march micro futures) at 5.79 scale down to cover what I sold last week at 6.30 and up
NQ tagged the first liquidity zone (white box) over night. Structure looks impulsive which we would expect for a C wave of an ABC correction. Currently retracing in a potential wave 2 and already in the golden pocket. 25,666 is a key resistance level which is lining up exactly with 0.5 retracement of wave 1 so we should get a rejection there. Acceptance above would be a cause for concern regarding the continuity of the correction
10 Things Investors Need to Know Today
Monday, February 2, 2026
1. US Futures Red, Tech Leading Losses NQ futures down 0.8% with ES -0.6% and RTY -0.9% as the week begins on a defensive note. NVIDIA (-1.6%) and Oracle (-3.5%) are dragging tech lower on company-specific news.
2. NVIDIA's OpenAI Deal in Question WSJ reports NVIDIA's $100bln OpenAI investment has stalled amid internal concerns. CEO Huang's attempted clarification ("no, no, nothing like that" when asked about $100bln+) may have inadvertently confirmed the doubts.
3. Historic Precious Metals Crash Continues Gold crashed as much as 10% and silver 16% — gold's biggest intraday drop in four decades. The selloff was triggered by Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair, with Chinese investors locking in profits overnight.
4. Oil Slides on US-Iran Talks WTI broke below $62/bbl as geopolitical risk premium evaporates on reports of potential US-Iran meeting in Turkey this week. Trump confirmed Iran is "seriously talking" with Washington.
5
Initiated this put ratio on Nifty for intraday. SL - 24960 spot level.
Update - Will adjust/exit if 24750 breaks.
According to me, Budget is Good.
Lots of plans and lots of funds allocation to Railways, Semiconductor, Bio Pharma, Data Centers,Medical Tourism etc etc....
I was never thinking of LTCG or STT reduction at any point of time.
Why Nirmala Sitaraman will do it? Just to make FII come back? Means succumb under FII pressure? Show weakness?
FII selling is not only because of LTCG. There are many reasons. Google, asking "why FII are selling in India" , and you will get various reasons....
I like the Budget. She gave exemption uptill 12 Lacs in last Budget in personal IT. She can't keep giving concession in every budget.
After cutting down GST in so many items, including cars, in last Sep, how FM can give more concession again so soon....GST rate reduction was a big spike for economical growth!!
BULL THESIS FOR $USAR
Almost 90% of rare earth materials are imported by the US. The biggest shock and risk for national security is the fact that we relied on China for these and they no longer export them. This creates a high risk supply chain issue and it's why the US has taken a large stake in USAR.
The list is extensive below but these rare earth materials are required to build rockets, missiles, lasers, laser defense system, and hypersonic weapons like (ICBMs). It's almost a matter of national defensive and security to make sure we can produce these.
Not to mention the commercial shock and retail demand which require these for smart phones, LED tvs, and things as simple as batteries.
The list is quite intense but these are all elements and minerals that we now longer have access to.
- Rare Earth Elements (REEs) & Magnets
These are indispensable for guidance systems, target acquisition, and actuators in missiles.
- Neodymium (Nd): Essential for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets, which a
Closed Dixon for 5k+.
I think we may see some more reaction on STT hike tomorrow when the FIIs resume the work. I am assessing what all trades should we further close.
We should get some more opportunity for new trades tomorrow.
Bitcoin OBV still being the most stubborn thing. It'd almost be nice if it could just figure out a direction to be traded. The structure continues to expand and range and every breakout was short lived but every breakdown held just enough to give hope.
Could be the similar idea playing out.
49k was resistance and ended up as support months later.... perhaps the market wants to check the 73k high before moving any higher?
NAIL short going well. Falling wedge so might bounce next week as a result of also hitting the daily RSI trendline and point of control in red. Happy to let this trade run towards at least 50 which is where the value area low is.
Weekly is cooked. Closing below Rate of change and bearish VI cross
Nice move down in TTWO US today - reminder I shorted this earlier this week.
