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Quick follow-up on one we shared about two weeks ago.

TPL, LandBridge (LB), and WaterBridge (WBI).

Since that post, TPL has run nearly $135. LandBridge is up close to 20%. WaterBridge about 6%.

The story hasn't changed. If anything it's getting louder. Upstream consolidation is still underway, the data center buildout in West Texas is accelerating, and these names are right in the middle of it all. They're also catching a tailwind from the geopolitical situation right now, which is real... but that kind of premium can come out of the price just as fast as it went in.

So if you missed this move, don't chase. When the geopolitical heat fades and these pull back under the 8-day, ideally down towards the 20-day... that's your window. Sell a put spread at a price you'd be comfortable paying for the stock. On something like LandBridge, that might mean waiting for a pullback into the mid-60s and targeting a spread around 60. You know your risk tolerance better than we do... just let the price com

UPL - Sold 750 call (12 delta) for 4 Rs. The stock should take some time to recover from here as it is closing below 640 (multiple supports at this level previously). I'll exit or convert this to a ratio/vol short above 680 close.

These are all the trade setups so everyone is prepared for the week

SBET, VOLX + SILVER

$FRPT - Earnings is on Monday and it's just not worth the risk to getting downside, even if they do well and we get a pump. The markets especially after the news today could be very interesting over the weekend so I'm not going to complain locking in almost 30% profits on a great runner during much more difficult conditions.

UVXY on the verge of collapsing

Big morning. A lot just happened at once, so let me catch everyone up.

GDP and PCE dropped simultaneously. These reports were delayed from the government shutdown, so we got them all at once today. GDP came in at 1.4% annualized for Q4. That's a big miss... consensus was around 2.5-3%. The shutdown clearly dragged on the number. Personal consumption slowed to 2.4% from 3.5% the quarter before.

The headline looks ugly, but the underlying demand picture is still intact. Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 2.4%. The economy didn't fall off a cliff. The shutdown just made it look that way.

The problem is inflation. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, came in at 0.4% month over month. Biggest monthly jump in nearly a year. Year over year it's now at 3%. Goods up 0.4%, services up 0.3%. Broad-based. Not what the Fed wanted to see.

So you've got weaker growth and hotter inflation in the same print. That's the stagflation mix nobody wants. Art Hogan at B. Riley called it a "messy mess

Initiated Muthoot Long - SL close below today's low.

Part of my strategy is Japanese bank consolidation. Constructive news today. I won Toho Bank which has a stake in a bank based in a neighbouring city...

I think this is likely what we are looking at for USDJPY which would fit my, Anantomy of a Market Crisis perfectly.

Wave 3 next week marks the end of cognitive dissonance. Then wave 4 will be where everyone mispositions by buying risk, expecting the worst to be over. Then we have the wave 5 climax in May that enforces reality and everyone gets liquidated

DXY is acting like they will rule against tariffs

Daily looking really strong and I think this is going to be the catalyst for the big move up in risk. This doesn't change anything tbh - regardless of the decision tomorrow, I will use it as an opportunity to position myself in SBET and Silver shorts / USDMXN + VIX longs because I highly doubt that will be the end of it and everyone lives happily ever after lol