The other tricky part is that the market might just be signalling that OpenAI is losing out to Anthropic - which is backed by Amazon and Google. Amazon and Google, have both surged in recent weeks. Amazon is particularly noteworthy, as the market initially greeted is capex splurge as negative.
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So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the price of data centres etc also being bid up. This makes sense to me - the question is how much Capex is needed to build a moat? So Microsoft it close to all in in my view. Capex matches cashflow in recent quarters, and the share price is starting to lag....
Over the weekend - I have been thinking about the AI trade... There are a few weird things about it...
Request a chart boys:
Palantir (PLTR) Very Long Cycles
Shorted PLTR last summer?
Some were laughing?
I shot the sheriff ...
SPX Monthly & LT EW Counts
- There are two primary alternatives, the black and green.
- The black count is primary for NDX and DJI, so it is possibly a favorite in SPX also.
- However, SPX did not have an overlap between (4) and (1) as required for ending diagonals, but the miss was by a hair and may be acceptable.
- It may take months or longer to resolve the black or green dilemma.
NQ Micro-EW Count
§ This is the most bullish count for five waves since the March low, including a rare series of 1-2s after wave (iv).
§ It requires two more down-up micro-sequences.
§ Yes, it is possible to count it as almost completed, but these options look worse.
Note that the BTC price peak in Oct'25 was a secondary peak in the cycle composite. I try to emphasize over and over to look at cycle peaks and troughs as approximate price turning points, not as prediction levels of price.
Conversely, the cycle composite can produce a higher peak while the price may only reach a lower, secondary high.
The full newsletter with new trades will come out tomorrow, but here's a preview:
Special Weekly Trade Note:
This week, one recommendation was stopped out for a full loss, and two for small losses. FactSet Research Systems (FDS) traded below its stop on Tuesday, so that position has been closed. We will look for new entries. Dover Corporation (DOV) closed below $219.95, stopping us out at $219.83 for a small loss. We’ll also look for reentry opportunities there. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) was triggered on a buy stop at $221.09, but then closed below that same level on Friday. We exited at $220.45, also for a very small loss.
The biggest result of the week came from Monster Beverage (MNST). Rather than exiting portions of the trade at the three targets provided on the way up, the entire position was exited at a price above our third target on a huge gap higher, producing a significant upside result and a profit that more than offset the week’s small stop-outs.
– Bobby –
JIM’S THREE CENTS - |
Litecoin Chart
Doesn't look like the last Litecoin chart actually posted. Was having some tech issues earlier. Here it is – goes with the post below
Sorry for the mix up here. I had to leave abruptly earlier and didn't notice it didn't post right.
As I have said, Loss is inevitable in stock market.
There is no one in stock market who can Claim that he didn't made a Loss.
So there will be winners and losers too. The trick is to hold on winners and sell losers.
What we do is, we sell winners and keep holding losers...
Where we went wrong, we keep holding and where we were correct, we sell that stock!!
Isn't that Foolish Thinking? It is....
That is why I always say, don't sell on Peanuts profit, because we have to made up for the Loss too which we are going to make while investing.
If you sell for small profit, and if your Loss is bigger then your profit, you will be in Loss!
This above is a simple equation to understand....
Why Cap your Profit? Why not cap Loss?
As soon as you sell a stock where you are having Loss, from that moment, your Loss
is CAPPED!! So Cap your Loss, don't Cap your Profit....
Multibaggers bar bar hath nahi atee.....
Take full advantage of your Multibagger stock.
SMH Daily Chart Cycles
Repost from X
Quick onboarding video for new Slice subscribers 👍
Just a simple overview of my market approach, what to expect from the analysis, and how I filter through the noise behind the scenes.
If you're staring at the Riot (RIOT) move this week and wondering whether you can still get in on it, let me present an alternative to chasing it at these levels.
The stock just hit a 52-week high above $24. It's up nearly 30% over the last five days. I get the temptation. But instead of buying shares up here, you can sell a credit put spread and let the trade come to you.
June 18 expiration. Sell the $18 put for about $0.52, buy the $17 put for $0.37. You collect $0.15 in credit on $0.85 of risk. Your breakeven is down around $17.85, which is roughly 26% below where the stock is sitting right now. That gives you about an 80% probability of keeping that premium at expiration for a 17.6% return on the margin you lock up.
If it stays above $18, you keep the $15 on every $85 in margin. If it pulls back to $18, you take ownership of the shares at a price you chose in advance while everyone else is panicking about the drop from $24. Then you can start selling calls against it or just hold a na
