The full newsletter with new trades will come out tomor...

Published May 10, 2026Updated May 10, 202616 min read

The full newsletter with new trades will come out tomorrow, but here's a preview:

Special Weekly Trade Note:

This week, one recommendation was stopped out for a full loss, and two for small losses. FactSet Research Systems (FDS) traded below its stop on Tuesday, so that position has been closed. We will look for new entries. Dover Corporation (DOV) closed below $219.95, stopping us out at $219.83 for a small loss. We’ll also look for reentry opportunities there. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) was triggered on a buy stop at $221.09, but then closed below that same level on Friday. We exited at $220.45, also for a very small loss.

The biggest result of the week came from Monster Beverage (MNST). Rather than exiting portions of the trade at the three targets provided on the way up, the entire position was exited at a price above our third target on a huge gap higher, producing a significant upside result and a profit that more than offset the week’s small stop-outs.

– Bobby –

JIM’S THREE CENTS -

Apparently, the fears of an imploding labor market were overblown. The latest BLS print came in at 115,000 jobs created, the second consecutive beat, and it appears to have given us a reprieve from the stagflation fears that gripped markets five weeks ago. The market’s read is simple: no stagflation, no problem. I mostly agree, with a few caveats.
The quality of the jobs being created is a little suspect. Heavy on health care. Heavy on couriers. Hard-charging parents who just wrote a six-figure check for private college tuition probably aren’t thrilled that their kid landed a delivery route. Hopefully, that’s just me doing my job, which is to find the cracks. But it’s worth noting.
The best case from here is a labor market that stays strong enough, combined with some resolution on Iran. More on that in a moment. Outside the labor market, the broader economy looks fine, maybe better than fine. Tax relief on the personal side and deregulation on the corporate side are real tailwinds. The rise in gas prices probably offsets a chunk of that refund check, but at least there’s something cushioning the blow. I’ll take it.
The BLS number wasn’t the only bright spot this week. ISM data also showed resilience. On balance, I’m bullish on the economy.
This week, Bob and I both spoke at a conference in Palm Beach. His key point: even with a full resolution of the Iranian conflict, the new floor for oil is probably around $77. That may not be the disaster it sounds like. Elevated prices should incentivize producers globally to ramp up. Bob’s view, and I share it, is that we’re roughly a year away from a potential oversupply situation. The UAE’s exit from OPEC makes that case even stronger. They’re currently producing around 2.5 million barrels per day against a capacity closer to 4 million. If they push toward that ceiling, others will follow to compete. Cheap oil is coming. It’s just not coming overnight.
Now, here’s something we need to worry about. Actually, “worry” is probably too strong a word, so let’s call it something to watch.
On April 30th, the Bank of Japan intervened in currency markets, pushing the yen up by roughly 2% in a single session. More than a week later, it held most of that move. The yen is still a beaten currency, down about 50% against the dollar over the last 15 years, but this flash of strength deserves attention.
For years the yen has been the world’s funding currency. Institutions borrow in yen at low rates, sell those yen for dollars or another currency, and deploy that capital into higher-returning assets. That’s the carry trade. The traditional assumption was that this flow supported U.S. Treasuries, since that’s where the dollars often ended up. This time around, the evidence points to a meaningful portion of yen carry going into tech stocks instead.
The risk is this: there’s a level, probably considerably higher than where the yen sits today, where short yen positions become too painful to hold and have to be covered. If that happens, you could see a knee-jerk selloff in both bonds and tech. It’s not a pressing concern right now. But it’s a real vulnerability, and it should be on your radar. Be ready to pivot…and that’s my 3 cents. – Jim –

Mike’s Key Technical Levels

Key Thoughts -

We have focused on stocks and the overbought levels for the past couple of weeks. That remains true; now both daily and weekly cycles are at tops, and overbought conditions persist. We are still patiently looking for a pullback, or at least a pause in the rally, to relieve some of the overbought conditions, and then we’ll reassess the situation and revise our stock forecast. In the meantime, we are shifting our focus to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. You can track this index on many platforms using the [BCOM] symbol. The weightings and components of the BCOM index are in the chart below. Currently, the BCOM index has broken through the highs set in 2022 when inflation was at elevated levels. Last week, the BCOM closed strongly above a major support level. Before you assume this is just due to the rally in crude driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, note that the index broke above a very key resistance level as far back as October 2025 and has been in a strong rally ever since. Energy accounts for close to 30% of the index; however, precious and industrial metals account for 34.5%. Copper recently broke above a key resistance level, and both Silver and Gold, which remain well off their January highs, are showing signs of life and might attempt to test key resistance levels. Grains, which make up slightly over 21% of the index, are also showing signs of life. Soybeans recently tested a key resistance level; Wheat broke above short-term resistance and is retesting a key support level; and Corn is currently testing its weekly 200 SMA and a key resistance level. Also, live cattle futures have broken out to new all-time highs. There is plenty of potential upwards pressure on the index, and we could see a continued break higher in the coming weeks. From a technical perspective, the BCOM has a potential weekly double top pattern, so a pullback or at least a pause in the rally would not be out of the question. This pause/pullback could also set up a massive monthly cup-and-handle pattern. If this pattern were to trigger, the next major target area, as predicted by the cup-and-handle, is the index highs from 2011. This is more than 25% above the current level. We bring this up because stocks remain at very elevated levels, and if money starts rotating out of the stock market and into commodities over the next few months, there will be plenty of opportunities to ride the commodity train higher. A continued run higher in many of these commodities will also put upward pressure on inflation measures, and longer-term yields could continue to rise. Reminder: the cup-and-handle pattern is not yet fully formed and has not triggered. This is something that we will be watching over the coming weeks, and we will keep everyone advised.

-MIKE-