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Altcoin Gems: Target 20-60% 💎

$INJ is already up +17% from our entry on the 4H timeframe.

For everyone still holding $INJ or @injective and asking for an update, here it is.

$INJ has successfully reclaimed the $5 level on the 4H chart, which is a positive sign.

What about the 1H timeframe?

Check Slide 2. A large Cup and Handle pattern is still forming. If $INJ breaks above the $7 resistance, the next target could be $10-11.

SPX Micro-EW Alternatives

·         SPX is similar to ES, but I show a bit more detail.

·         Both orange and black bullish triangles are possible.

·         The key detail is a small sub-micro triangle, developed on 7/15016, for micro-B.

·         This precludes any impulsive option down from the 7/10 high, e.g., from red circle-ii.

·         Only the red diagonal remains as an option for red (i), which is somewhat early to bet on.

·         That red diagonal could also fit into an expanded flat for green circle-ii or blue circle-iv.

·         There is also an alternate bearish triangle (not shown) still in progress for wave (b), from which wave (c) down would fit green circle-ii or blue circle-iv.

·         Since assuming the red triangle is premature now, triangle options become more likely, and the red count is less likely.

$QQQ lost ~5% in the past 3 days but the daily chart is still holding strong.

Pay close attention to the important 100 day eMA (white line) which has provided excellent support for the index in the past. A hold here could set up a descending triangle pattern for breakout to the upside.

Join my Slice Weekend Chart Club - Full video review of all bullish ticker setups for July 17th is now posted for subscribers!

SPX Large Degree Elliott Wave Counts

• Let me share the big degree EW count options for the benefit of new subscribers.
• The brown count corresponds to an ending diagonal for circle-5 (Primary-5).
• The completion of circle-5 will correspond to the completion of super-cycle degree (III).
• This would be a big milestone, as (III) lasted about 100 years.
• The black count is an impulsive version of circle-5.
• The green count is a sub-variant of the black one, which allows wave (5) to be more proportionate to wave (1).
• Green (5) can extend into 2027-28; as you might remember from my cycle discussions, I expect a positive market in 2027.

The AI hardware trade is cracking hard this morning, and it's worth understanding what actually set it off, because it isn't just profit-taking.

The trigger came out of China. A company called Moonshot released a new model, Kimi K3, and it's the largest open-source model ever built. It rivals the top US systems, and it's open, meaning anyone can use it. This is the same fear that hit the market with DeepSeek earlier, and it keeps coming back for a reason.

The whole US AI and chip trade is priced on the assumption that we stay far ahead. Every time China closes the gap and drives the cost of these models down, that assumption takes a hit. And it's not just the model side. A Chinese memory maker called CXMT is about to list in Shanghai after an IPO that was more than 200 times oversubscribed, which stands up a fourth major competitor in the memory chips that go into every phone and server. More capacity and more competition in memory is a direct threat to the pricing power that has driven

Guys, just a quick reminder: this is speculation, not investment advice.

Then again… crypto is mostly a game of probabilities.

Here’s what I’m watching:

$TAIKO pumped over 17x, but before continuing higher, it dropped around 35% to shake out weak hands.

That price action looks very similar to what happened with $MANTA.

After rallying more than 150%, $MANTA crashed back to its key support. In my view, that move likely flushed out late buyers and trapped longs exactly the kind of reset market makers often look for.

What if $MANTA follows a similar path to $TAIKO? (Pure speculation.)

If that happens, we could see $MANTA revisit the levels it traded at before the crash, around $1.00-$1.23.

Because of that, I’ve opened a small spot position in $MANTA and shared it on @SliceApp. Now I’ll simply wait and see whether this idea plays out.

If you want to follow this trade, keep your position small and manage your risk. This is a speculative setup, not a certainty writing.

If you want, I can also make it

Update on the OBV lesson

A good example of how the bearish OBV divergence played out. Obviously you don't know how long the line is going to be but you could see how it chugged along higher while the OBV started grinding lower. When OBV is a leading indicator (volume based) you start to notice that people were taking profits and volume started coming down as price pushed up higher.

Divergences are usually better for taking profits than shorting because of the timing

The hardest part about shorts is how exact the timing has to be but when you notice a divergence you can start having a sense of where to take some profits. As you can see sometimes the length of them are longer but eventually price likes to catch up with OBV. Now we also get to see what happens when OBV is starting to show a breakdown while price hasn't quite down that yet. It can snap back into the range but it's a good chart to watch for lessons rather than try to actually take.

Ascending Triangle on the S&P 500

Possible bullish thrust upwards toward 8000.

This could ignite bullish crypto sentiment

I am really starting to wonder when the stock market runs out of momentum

S&P 500 Heatmap

• Revealing that semiconductor stocks are slapping the NDX
• The rest of the SPX and broader market look good/green
• I was warning in May, and later, about the SOX; now you can see the results

USDJPY EW Count Update

• Nice triangle within a triangle
• Wave e is a triangle, which you do not see very often; maximal tension between shorts and longs
• This is telling us two things: 1) 5 waves to new high is the final thrust from wave (iv) for the minuette degree, and 2) fairly safe to take a short position after 5 waves to new highs

This is unsustainable and the bubbles with burst and the capital destructive will be immense: