My latest thoughts on the developing Iran-US confrontation The US military attack to an Iran empty tanker deep inside the Persian gulf en route to Kharg island signals a major shift in tactic. While before the blockade was more “conventional”, now it seems they will close access to Iranian ports. During the first blockade Iran has effectively used empty tankers to continue its crude oil production, the reason why was able to export ~80m barrels quickly. But now Iran will have many tankers in the Indian Ocean that cannot come back and those still inside might be actively precluded to be used as floating storage accelerating the timeline of production shut ins. The plan is to deliver a faster economic blow than what it was done in the previous round. So far today Iran hasn’t made any retaliatory move against this change of posture. No retaliatory moves have been made either to answer the attacks to its civil infrastructure. I don’t think we will need to wait too long before they play their next move, a risk factor, of course, not being priced in any shape or form by markets at the moment