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The Sirius Report
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Pakistan is set to launch its first-ever Panda Bond issuance, raising up to $250 million in yuan-denominated debt in China's onshore market. This initiative, part of a broader $1 billion programme, aims to diversify funding sources, lower borrowing costs, and strengthen foreign reserves.


The bonds will be guaranteed by the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.


After their financial crisis in 2023, Pakistan is utilising this and in part to replace a $3.5bn debt facility from the UAE. This represents a major shift in Pakistan's sovereign debt strategy towards strengthening ties with Chinese capital markets.

BraVoCycles
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Stock Market Breadth Problem - Part 4

  • While SPX is trending above the Keltner channel, the percentage of stocks above 50D and 20D MAs has been trending down for 3 weeks.



Stock Market Breadth Problem - Part 4
russellclark
Public Post

ARM is interesting. It is turning itself into an AI play - and its new CPU designs are supported by all the hyperscalers. But break ARM, you break Softbank, and you break OPEN AI. Alternatively, if OPEN AI and other AI agents start raising prices to generate cash, does demand drop? Is demand only strong because Chat GPT offers an internet search option uncluttered with ads?

russellclark
Public Post

Softbank also has good form as a harbinger of market changes - LEADING the US in 1999, 2006, and 2021. Which leads back to an earlier post.... are equities right on Softbank, or are bond markets?

Softbank also has good form as a harbinger of market changes - LEADING the US in 1999, 2006, and 2021. Which leads back to an earlier post.... are...
russellclark
Public Post

The other tricky part is that the market might just be signalling that OpenAI is losing out to Anthropic - which is backed by Amazon and Google. Amazon and Google, have both surged in recent weeks. Amazon is particularly noteworthy, as the market initially greeted is capex splurge as negative.

The other tricky part is that the market might just be signalling that OpenAI is losing out to Anthropic - which is backed by Amazon and Google. Am...
russellclark
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So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the price of data centres etc also being bid up. This makes sense to me - the question is how much Capex is needed to build a moat? So Microsoft it close to all in in my view. Capex matches cashflow in recent quarters, and the share price is starting to lag....

So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the p...So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the p...
russellclark
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Over the weekend - I have been thinking about the AI trade... There are a few weird things about it...

BraVoCycles
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Palantir (PLTR) Very Long Cycles


Shorted PLTR last summer?


Some were laughing?


I shot the sheriff ...


Palantir (PLTR) Very Long Cycles
BraVoCycles
Public Post

SPX Monthly & LT EW Counts

  • There are two primary alternatives, the black and green.
  • The black count is primary for NDX and DJI, so it is possibly a favorite in SPX also.
  • However, SPX did not have an overlap between (4) and (1) as required for ending diagonals, but the miss was by a hair and may be acceptable.
  • It may take months or longer to resolve the black or green dilemma.


SPX Monthly & LT EW Counts
BraVoCycles
Public Post

NQ Micro-EW Count

§  This is the most bullish count for five waves since the March low, including a rare series of 1-2s after wave (iv).

§ It requires two more down-up micro-sequences.

§ Yes, it is possible to count it as almost completed, but these options look worse.


NQ Micro-EW Count
BraVoCycles
Public Post

Note that the BTC price peak in Oct'25 was a secondary peak in the cycle composite. I try to emphasize over and over to look at cycle peaks and troughs as approximate price turning points, not as prediction levels of price.


Conversely, the cycle composite can produce a higher peak while the price may only reach a lower, secondary high.

Finance Unfiltered
Public Post

The full newsletter with new trades will come out tomorrow, but here's a preview:


Special Weekly Trade Note:

This week, one recommendation was stopped out for a full loss, and two for small losses. FactSet Research Systems (FDS) traded below its stop on Tuesday, so that position has been closed. We will look for new entries. Dover Corporation (DOV) closed below $219.95, stopping us out at $219.83 for a small loss. We’ll also look for reentry opportunities there. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) was triggered on a buy stop at $221.09, but then closed below that same level on Friday. We exited at $220.45, also for a very small loss.

The biggest result of the week came from Monster Beverage (MNST). Rather than exiting portions of the trade at the three targets provided on the way up, the entire position was exited at a price above our third target on a huge gap higher, producing a significant upside result and a profit that more than offset the week’s small stop-outs.

 – Bobby –

JIM’S THREE CENTS -

... see more