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Software Sector ETF (IGV) Analysis

• IGV is oversold and can bounce toward August, then down into early 2026.
• The decline from Sep'25 was an impulse in five waves, and the bounce since Apr'26 was in 3 corrective waves
• The expected multi-week bounce should again be corrective, then impulsively down
• The best-case scenario is the black count with a target in the 60s
• The worst-case scenario is the red count leading to much lower levels over several years
• Even under the black count, IGV can go much lower over 4 +/- years; black (C) can be Primary-A of a much bigger correction, with a Primary-B bounce into 2028 and Primary-C down into 2030.

Short NQ and NDX Cycles

• Let's examine closely NQ and NDX, short cycles first
• NDX short cycles are aligned with the positive seasonality toward the 4th of July
• NQ short cycle could provide an upside bias toward late July; it is somewhat puzzling that they are not closely aligned
• However, L+VL and S+L+VL cycle composites are pointing down and they may suppress short cycle and left-translate them
• I will show the three dominant NDX and NQ cycles next

VW 2008 Short squeeze vs today's crude oil

long silver - daytrade

That's what we wanted to see on Mission (AVO)... Good signal. 8/20 setup with insider buying... That's as good as it gets.

SOX - 16-Week Cycle

·         Note that the last Hurst nominal 20W (16W actual) cycle was much stronger, 3x-5x, than in the previous periods.

It is possible that in the next period the amplitude of this cycle may weaken.

The latest FX forecast still favours EUR, but the breakdown matters: the signal is being driven by trend, valuation, and regime, not by carry. GBP also remains constructive, though its support comes more from regime and valuation than from a fully aligned factor set. SEK and SGD continue to screen positively, with trend a key driver in both.

In contrast, CAD remains soft on weak regime and valuation, while JPY is still being held back primarily by carry. In EM, ZAR stands out on strong carry and trend, and KRW remains constructive thanks to a strong trend signal despite negative carry.

NDX Cycle Price Targets

·         NDX has 18td and 12-td cycles to new highs.

·         The latter will likely be invalidated today, barring a very strong rally, as even a sideways-to-up move will cause the signal line to cross the gray 12td cycle FLD.

Rout in AI/Chip Sector - Broad Rotation Underneath

I have been "beathing the dead horse" about SOX topping - it likely rolled over today

A sharp selloff in semiconductors (led by memory chip weakness in South Korea) spilled over into U.S. markets. KOSPI was down 10%

The Nasdaq fell 3% and chips 7% dragging the S&P 500 lower while the Dow and broader market showed relative resilience.

long SQQQ - should be time for the big collapse now with USDJPY breaking out

DXY 6M Higher Highs + Higher Lows + Retests & RSI Signals

The DXY 6M chart shows a clean retest of a downtrend channel breakout. Past retests of important support levels combined with the RSI holding above 50 leads to continuation

I think this ends up being a big deal and no one is paying attention to this move

Financials ETF ($XLF) - Dominant Cycle
- The dominant 39-week cycle is showing more strength ahead in July, but then down into Dec'26

• It is a bit different from indices which have the nominal 40W cycle peaking about now
• Notice at the bottom that it is running "hot" now, the second strongest over the last 6 periods