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Top 10 Things Traders Need to Watch Today

Japanese Government Bonds

The 40-year yield broke above 4.23% (+40bps), 30-year above 3.90% (+41bps), and the 10-year hit 2.38% (+20bps). This is the real story driving global risk-off sentiment, not Greenland. The BoJ may need to dust off emergency bond-buying operations as early as tomorrow.

VIX Above 20

Fear gauge spiked 25%+ this morning, crossing the psychological threshold. Last time we touched 20 was late November, which marked the last S&P red period.

USD Weakness

Dollar index fell to 98.46 after Bessent tried to calm markets. EUR/USD topped 1.1700, USD/JPY slipped below 158. Watch for continued pressure if risk-off persists.

Gold's Record Run

Spot gold printed another all-time high at $4,737/oz despite surging yields. Silver also at ATHs above $95. Classic flight to safety while Treasuries get sold.

Trump's Davos Address Tomorrow (8:30am EST)

He'll speak on Greenland. Any escalation or de-escalation on European tariffs could whipsaw marke

What drives Bitcoin? Results from long-term study from VAR model using weekly data. Shows Global Liquidity dominant factor. Gold plays a secondary role, revealing short-term negative correlation and long-term positive correlation.

Bitcoin tends to be a momentum asset. Which in my book means buying it when the 200MDA inflects up, and avoiding it when the 200MDA is moving down. Currently it still in the "avoid" trend. This attitude is reinforced by the still very high numbers of shares outstanding in IBIT US.

A picture is worth 1000 words

A beautiful classical song on Bansuri by Shankar Jaikishen...
With beautiful Rafisaab playback...
The beauty is, we make classical songs on Lord Krishna's Bansuri even....!!
For 5000 yrs, India is celebrating Shree Krishna and for 7000 yrs, India is celebrating Lord Ram...Never get tired, never get less fascinated , nor the celebration fades away!!
The Holy Granth of Hindu, The Geeta, not a single time WORD , Hindu, is written in it!! Amazing!!

How We Got Here

This weekend, we want to highlight one of the most important charts in global finance. This chart showcases the holdings of U.S. dollars against Gold since 1970.

Back in 1971, the U.S. came off the gold standard. The dollar because the official "reserve currency" in 1945 after Bretton Woods... but that dollar was backed by gold. When the U.S. could no longer back its currency with physical gold, the dollar floated... and the dollar became the primary instrument of trade... particularly in the oil markets.

What followed in the 1990s was an uptick in globalizing U.S. dollar denominated debt. When nations fund themselves and trade in dollars (and settle accounts), they need physical dollars, so they had held them for a long period of time.

But now, that shift from U.S. Treasuries to gold came after a huge shift in the way that nations perceived the U.S. After the U.S. weaponized the dollar and stripped Russia of her dollar reserves, other central banks looked around and worr

$FLNC - Pretty impressive to see how fast these dips get bought up. Seems like some more bullish news with working on Europes largest battery stroage.

Earnings are on November 24th so after that will consider maybe a 3rd entry if things are looking good or if we get another slump.

$FLNC - Another strong week with more positive news. It's pricing in a lot of future revenue and future backlog orders so over time the financials should catch up to those valuations. But with how volatile this one can be it never hurts take some profits even with the goal to buy a later dip when volatility swings the other day.

Entries up or near 50% so not a bad trade so far to kick off the year.

My target to cover my silver short and flip long is around $58

That's where the 06.18 retracement of wave 3 is and makes sense to form a bottom around there

Short Jio Fin through put diagonal - It broke down, made an attempt to reverse in last couple of days but didn't sustain.

There is not much IV differential but just 10 days to expiry so instead of initiating a put spread in Feb, took diagonal. SL - close above 288 spot.

Long 290 PE Feb

Short 280 PE Jan

Bitcoin getting rejected at a key level (white box) and tomorrow is a fib-time pivot so should be closue to this counter trend bounce concluding.

I'm expecting February to be quite ugly for risk assets

Fast food chains have leverage at the franchisee level and secular pressure from Ozempic.