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Top 10 Things Traders Need to Watch Today Japanese Government Bonds The 40-year yield broke above 4.23% (+40bps), 30-year above 3.90% (+41bps), and the 10-year hit 2.38% (+20bps). This is the real story driving global risk-off sentiment, not Greenland. The BoJ may need to dust off emergency bond-buying operations as early as tomorrow. VIX Above 20 Fear gauge spiked 25%+ this morning, crossing the psychological threshold. Last time we touched 20 was late November, which marked the last S&P red period. USD Weakness Dollar index fell to 98.46 after Bessent tried to calm markets. EUR/USD topped 1.1700, USD/JPY slipped below 158. Watch for continued pressure if risk-off persists. Gold's Record Run Spot gold printed another all-time high at $4,737/oz despite surging yields. Silver also at ATHs above $95. Classic flight to safety while Treasuries get sold. Trump's Davos Address Tomorrow (8:30am EST) He'll speak on Greenland. Any escalation or de-escalation on European tariffs could whipsaw markets. The 200% tariff threat on French wine is setting the stage. Treasury Secretary Bessent's Comments He called for calm, reminded markets that US-EU tensions have been strained before, and signaled the Swiss-US agreement is "well along." He's also hinting at a new Fed Chair announcement "as early as next week." Netflix Earnings After Close First major tech earnings of the week. Given the NQ down 2.1% and broader tech pressure from Asia (Samsung and SK Hynix both down 2.3%), this report matters for sentiment. Breakout/Breakdown Ratio Flipped Hard Friday was 19 breakouts vs 23 breakdowns. This morning it's 6 vs 33. That's serious capital rotation heading for exits. Yen Carry Trade Unwind Risk With Japanese yields suddenly attractive and the yen down 8% since Takaichi took office, the math on borrowing yen to buy US assets is breaking. This is the plumbing issue that ripples through everything leveraged. ADP Employment Change Economic data still matters. Watch for any surprise that shifts Fed rate expectations. Markets currently don't expect a cut until June.

Published Jan 20, 2026Updated Jan 20, 20265 min read
Top 10 Things Traders Need to Watch Today Japanese Government Bonds The 40-year yield broke above 4.23% (+40bps), 30-year above 3.90% (+41bps), and the 10-year hit 2.38% (+20bps). This is the real story driving global risk-off sentiment, not Greenland. The BoJ may need to dust off emergency bond-buying operations as early as tomorrow. VIX Above 20 Fear gauge spiked 25%+ this morning, crossing the psychological threshold. Last time we touched 20 was late November, which marked the last S&P red period. USD Weakness Dollar index fell to 98.46 after Bessent tried to calm markets. EUR/USD topped 1.1700, USD/JPY slipped below 158. Watch for continued pressure if risk-off persists. Gold's Record Run Spot gold printed another all-time high at $4,737/oz despite surging yields. Silver also at ATHs above $95. Classic flight to safety while Treasuries get sold. Trump's Davos Address Tomorrow (8:30am EST) He'll speak on Greenland. Any escalation or de-escalation on European tariffs could whipsaw markets. The 200% tariff threat on French wine is setting the stage. Treasury Secretary Bessent's Comments He called for calm, reminded markets that US-EU tensions have been strained before, and signaled the Swiss-US agreement is "well along." He's also hinting at a new Fed Chair announcement "as early as next week." Netflix Earnings After Close First major tech earnings of the week. Given the NQ down 2.1% and broader tech pressure from Asia (Samsung and SK Hynix both down 2.3%), this report matters for sentiment. Breakout/Breakdown Ratio Flipped Hard Friday was 19 breakouts vs 23 breakdowns. This morning it's 6 vs 33. That's serious capital rotation heading for exits. Yen Carry Trade Unwind Risk With Japanese yields suddenly attractive and the yen down 8% since Takaichi took office, the math on borrowing yen to buy US assets is breaking. This is the plumbing issue that ripples through everything leveraged. ADP Employment Change Economic data still matters. Watch for any surprise that shifts Fed rate expectations. Markets currently don't expect a cut until June.
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