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QQQ vs VXN (NDX VIX)

Today, QQQ was
Up at least +2.75%
On a day VXN (VIX for QQQ) was up at least +1.00 point

And how has QQQ done 2 weeks and 1 month after every similar event in the past?

SPX and VXX rallied together on Monday

This often precedes at least a short-term reversal in SPX

SPX vs Internals

S&P 500 is near the Aug high, but most stocks are in downtrends

Rotation into the broader market ended at the August high and the breadth has been declining since

342 stocks are below the 50D MA and 240 are below 200D MA

The post-FED rally was largely led by large-cap tech stocks. Small caps and the Dow lagged. Investors are maybe betting that higher rates will not hurt tech giants

Bitcoin Now Vs Pre-COVID Fractal: We Might Have Our Pattern

The sentiment today was disgusting. The euphoria from bulls was just ridiculous all around. People don't get rewarded for awful behavior and by doing the same exact thing as everyone else.

If markets were that easy, everyone would be rich. And if these analysts were that good, they'd have also got the top and the bear market right

They NEED this. So they are so emotional.

I am calm, and stoic, sticking to the strategy I outlined.

This was the case where I was better off sticking to my original plans, but risk management says I was supposed to short resistance

If we got a lower high. it would have been the right move and a very safe trade

This trade is now a lot less safe, as we don't really know there the top would be.

So we have to look for Fibs. Where we are at is in line with the pre-COVID expanded flat

This was the original plan. and we hit $87K like I targeted. I did say as much as $89K and really I see a zone at $93K also

OF cour

SOX Time Cycles

• A pullback this week, up into early Oct., followed by a down move toward 8 Oct.

Equal-Weight S&P 500 Sectors

• Today's rally is clearly led by Tech Mega-Caps, some Mag 7, Semis, ...

EURUSD 4H rejected at the RSI DTL - probably going to retest the lows, hence why PMs are rolling over

Top 40 Global financials at a glance:

Dow Theory Sell Signal

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has confirmed the trend reversal in the Transportation Average by multiple criteria, including making lower lows, breaks of trendlines, support, and both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages

Can we agree that the Dow Theory Sell has been triggered?

NASDAQ 100 – What's brewing beneath the surface?

Second-tier stocks have been declining since mid-August.

Approximately 70% are in intermediate-term downtrends, and 45% are in long-term downtrends.

A select group of large-cap tech stocks is holding up the index.

What's next?

Scenario A: Second-tier stocks join large-caps at new highs
Scenario B: Large-caps join second-tier stocks at new lows

I think B is next

APPL Cycle Price Target

• This is the only price target for APPL
• Allow for a reversal from this target

NDX - Short Cycles

· Short cycles have been very helpful in the confusing market over the last 3-4 months.

· They work well in sideways, range markets, but could be largely ignored in trending markets when multiple long cycles are pointing in the same direction.

· Hurst nominal 10D, 20D, and 40D, 8td, 16td, and 29td cycles in NDX were exceptionally helpful.

· They are expected to peak early in the week; always allow some +/- tolerance around projected peaks/troughs.

· Overall, these three cycles suggest a choppy downside bias into early October.

NYSE Common Stock Advance-Decline Line vs Market Rotation

· You might remember that in late May I speculated that we could see some rotation from the mega-cap stocks and semiconductors into the broader market that could last a couple of months.

· It did happen.

· You could see that from early June until mid-August the A-D line was trending higher while the SPX was essentially moving sideways, and NDX (not shown) was slightly weaker.

· The A-D Line has been declining since mid-August and broke below its 200D MA, which usually implies it might touch, or worse, the 400D MA.

· The rotation into the broader stock market from mega-cap stocks started to fade in mid-August.

· Lately, on multiple occasions, the broad market weakness, often when oil prices were up, was masked by strength in several mega-caps.

When these mega-caps correct, the market may experience additional downside.