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Sunday Slice Report

  • Wild week for stocks which saw a massive 2 week long rally continue with stock market all time highs for the S&P 500
  • NASDAQ went up 6.5% and the S&P 500 up 4.5% making it now up on the year
  • Geopolitical tensions took a break and the Strait of Hormuz was opened Friday which saw $OIL go lower and the markets push up (now during the weekend it's closed again)
  • Crypto saw some life again, but once again was the punching bag for news as a lot of the gains erased or pushed back
  • Futures opening up red but hard to know what it will be like until the stock market actually opens

Planned Events

Pretty boring week for economic data and planned events. A jobless claims (April 23rd) and some data like pending home sales and US retail sales. Then a Consumer Sentiment comes out. So while the markets probably won't be boring or slow there's nothing really happening in "planned" stuff.


Earnings Week

We are now back into earnings season again so we are going to see some more volatility as the

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USDJPY Cycle Price Target

·         USDJPY satisfied the 20W upside target that extends to 162.7 and has an outstanding 18M cycle target shown below.

·         On the weekly chart, this 18M target is narrower, 162.3-163.2.


$AGLD Long Idea based on a 3-month HTF reversal setup.

Q1 of this year swept the low of Q4 of last year BUT then closed back within the Q4 range.

Potential trade here is that Q1 low is protected and we see a displacement towards the highs of Q4 range.

Although I am starting a position here - there might be the opportunity to either wait for lower prices to open a position or to add to existing and bring down average cost.

A sweep of previous week lows (PWL) around .223 would have me paying attention.

Sold 100%

Closing out this $AGLD trade here - I'm not liking the way its coming down off this last pump, especially if we suspect BTC could be going down for a bit.

I will revisit this after we get some clarity from BTC.

Adventure Gold

Adventure Gold

19 Apr

CLOSEDLONG

Invested Capital

0.1%

Buying Price

0.2433$

Selling Price

0.2675$

ROI

9.91%

Shafiuddin

7 hours ago

Sir can you explain in detail, if their is no promoters holding is 1 or 2% only. Then who will run that types of company's. I am confused. Please guide us sir ji.


My Reply--

I always explain in DETAIL. I now feel , you don't read any of my POST or REPLIES, otherwise you should have not asked me to explain in DETAIL!!

If you read my all post everyday and replies everyday, you should have not asked me to explain in DETAIL. I feel bad, when I write in such details, explain in detail , discuss in detail, and someone ask me to explain in detail.....You don't have to ask. It is my trade mark, my replies and post have clarity, I think none have with no confusion.

Promoters holding has nothing to do with price movement, because someone else is holding that shares and when stock is moving, how can we argue that?

In US market, almost 100% Cos have Promo stake of 5 to 10%....and US market is the largest market in the world.

Now if you feel, you are not comfortable with low promoter

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It was nice meeting the Ridham Desai, MD Morgan Stanley India over Dinner last night.


We discussed at length over multiple topics including the current psychology of FII's towards India. During the discussion he shared 5 Mega trends coming where an investor and trader can make huge returns over the next 10 years.


Will share those trends in the coming post


$MOVR hit full target and then some! This is why I like to leave a runner piece in even after all TPs.

Congrats if you played this.

Singapore knows that the US empire is now over:


"Great Disruptor" Label: Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen stated that the US is seen as a "great disruptor," bringing a level of unpredictability to trade and security that has not been seen before.


Revisionist Power: Singapore Foreign Minister Balakrishnan has described the US as a "revisionist power," indicating a shift away from supporting the status quo to actively overturning it.

$MOVR Long Idea

I think I had shared this one previously on either a stream or in DM but the setup is still perfectly valid and just as appealing today as it was almost 2 weeks ago.

I am already building a position here and will add on a sweep, as illustrated in the image. I don't know if it will sweep, but I will take it as an opportunity if it does.

Attaching the original setup I shared on the 1st of the month for reference.

Sold 100%
Take Profit : 1.92 $
Moonriver analysis
Moonriver

Moonriver

17 Apr

CLOSEDLONG

Invested Capital

0.1%

Buying Price

1.190$

Selling Price

1.595$

ROI

34.03%

S&P 500 vs M2 Money Supply


This ratio shows that the S&P 500 hasn't made a new local ATH when measured against M2 money supply.


The S&P500 also hasn't made a new ATH since the dot com bubble against M2


The two lacks of an ATH could be an indication of non-confirmation of a sustained rally

VXX Short-Term Update

  • Ideally, VXX should make a lower low to complete micro-5 of v.
  • Whether it is the red count or the black one is TBD.


Something changed in this market this week. Everyone's trying to figure out why.


The Fed has been buying roughly $40 billion a month in Treasury bills since December to front-load the liquidity drain that comes every year around tax season. Banks need to be liquid when all that cash goes out the door. The Treasury is issuing debt to meet its obligations. The Fed buys it so the banks don't have to.


As we got closer to tax day, the Treasury likely reviewed its numbers and realized it had excess cash. That excess doesn't just sit there. It finds its way back into the system.


The Treasury General Account started drawing down the week of April 1st. About $100 billion.


The Fed also announced it's keeping $25 billion of those monthly purchases going forward. Look at the balance sheet. It's growing. That's money printing.


Now think about where that excess probably ends up in this environment. Oil is volatile. Foreign markets are a mess. Geopolitics aren't improving. The money goes to the cleanest s

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Materials, Nuclear, and Quantum the big winners

Looks like from everything being watched on the sector and watchlist these have been the big winners. All seem somewhat related as you need rare earth materials for Nuclear, and you need materials for Quantum. I don't know if Quantum right now is the highest speculative play and highest beta trade which is why it's taking off right now or if there's some progress and narrative changes that means it might still be early to hop on the momentum.


Massive Rally, Slice Portfolio up 4% and happy to be wrong with further deviation

Q1 was a tough year for trading and there was a lot of directions the markets could have gone. Per usual it picks the most ridiculous path which is to just run it all back in a very short amount of time. I know there's been a lot of confusion with my posts and I've been confused too but this is why I don't put all my eggs in my basket and why even why I call or upside or downside I have trades going in the other position.

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Mexico has officially launched the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.


The project connects the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, creating a new trade route across southern Mexico. Cargo ships arriving at the Port of Salina Cruz and are then transported by rail across the country to the Port of Coatzacoalcos (Veracruz) on the Gulf side and vice versa. This allows goods to avoid having to travel thousands of miles through the Panama Canal.


Mexico is also building, economic zones to attract global investment, modernised ports, industrial parks, factories, highways and logistics hubs


This provides an alternative trade route to move goods between Asia and the Atlantic and critically bypasses the Panama Canal. The next question is, how much Chinese investment and involvement was and is being made in this project?