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Wheat & Agro

• Posted the bullish wheat setup a couple of weeks ago.
• Reversed between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels; good enough.
• Reposting from X about support for bullish fundamentals.

IWO/IWN bearish retest looks complete. This shows that flows underneath the surface are starting to weaken as value starts to outperform growth. This is not an immeditate signal to act upon but it does tell us that we are likely very close to a reversal in the bullish trend.

Time to keep our head on a swivel!

This explains my thinking behind AI - and why I am willing to take some long risk if the valuation makes sense... namely wafer stocks like Siltronics and SUMCO.

Note how foreign central banks holdings of USTs has effectively flat lined since 2012.

Not how the claims of foreign private sector ownership of USTs has risen in that period over 4tn. Only it is not foreign private ownership at all. It is largely US domestic entities.

Hence hiding them in the likes of the Cayman Islands and the UK.

Healthcare a lagging sector that should see rotation

Energy started the year off as the hot sector, Tech/AI had a big correction, and now it's rebounding. Still cautious on the move because they were overvalued before the dip, and now are at higher valuations. The market is really trying to stick to a narrative to push higher and I'm not trying to short the strength as it can last irrationally longer than it should.

My mindset is usually to find what's next, and sometimes it works very well, other times it's annoying missing some hot trends. I chose to be conservative and play it safe instead of gambling on the AI/Tech rebound so missed out on the move. So I either can sulk for months and try FOMO chasing what's already popped or remain patient and look for the next round of winners and win back some skeptics.

A good example was bidding $INTC sub $20 and catching the first massive rally off of the move. While I was waiting for that one $NVDA and other AI stocks were red hot and running. I

CNN Fear & Greed Index Update

Greed pulled back a bit last week, but who's to say the F&G Index won't move into Extreme Greed?

Aerpace Ind Ltd..

R&D and Manufacturing Facility video....with commentry.

ETHBTC with a strong 2h bull div, we're about to go risk on

Tagging POC on Monday would be a massive warning signal to flip risk off

$HYDR HTF Idea

With all the recent buzz and movement in energy plays, hydrogen seems to be gearing up for a larger move still to come. We can see that it has recently shifted market structure and is now above previous quarter high and also previous year high, but it is coming up into some potential resistance.

If we see HYDR cool off a bit and head back towards the channel median and PQH, I will be paying attention for an opportunity to get long exposed.

Bitcoin Monthly Morning Star Pattern: Bullish Reversal Pattern, But Beware

As you know, I don't believe the bottom is in for the bear market. But bullish signals are building.

The Morning Star on the monthly is VERY significant especially with it forming at a former resistance possibly turned support

The problem here is that Bitcoin found resistance at the April 2025 low currently, something that didn't exist in 2022

In 2022, the Morning Star was part of a range deviation and reclaim. IMO, it was very obvious

This bottom is less obvious but that might mean anything

However, what does mean something is that these patterns PERFORM best when they arrive at the bottom of a downtrend, or during a bull market to continue an uptrend. The second chart shows this in the teal boxes

There was also a Morning Star on the monthly right before the COVID collapse

If we are potentially looking at another global economic event, this would make sense

I've long been expecting an X wave as part of a double zig zag

long CIFR retesting the breakout