In a similar vein - Gold v S&P 500 have come back to levels where it looks interesting as well.
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Sticky Price CPI Inflation Expectation
The dominant 64-month cycle of the Sticky Price CPI suggests higher inflation heading into 2028, followed by a decline toward 2030.
Interestingly, my cycle analysis of the S&P 500 points to a market low of sorts in 2020.
Note: The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price.
Update: McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI)
Did you pay attention back on March 5th? Since then, $NYSI, the swing trend indicator, has collapsed, pulling the stock market down with it.
The Fed didn't surprise today!.
- No rate cuts this meeting, again.
- Now only ONE cut planned for 2026, and another for 2027.
- Inflation forecast for 2026 bumped up to 2.7%.
- Middle East risks? The Fed calls them "uncertain."
- 11-1 vote. Governor Miran stands alone in dissent.
Will the FED do more than one rate cut in 2026?
miners setting up to rip
65m bull div
Will commodities cause inflation?
My cycle analysis of FRED's PPI – All Commodities data series indicates they will NOT. Overall, commodity prices should remain under downward pressure over the next several years.
This doesn't mean there won't be inflation from other sectors.
Retweet if you understand.
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The evidence gets more damning by the day:
US intelligence concluded that Iran was not rebuilding nuclear enrichment capacities destroyed last year by the US and Israel, contradicting a key justification by Trump for the current Iran war.
Allow for the usual FED announcement related whipsaws.
Remember, the post-FED reaction is usually reversed the next day.
SPX Short-Term Update
What is FED going to do? I do not know. But this is what Elliott wave analysis suggests.
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The Fed's next move drops at 2 p.m. ET, don't look away.
We're getting fresh economic projections and a decision on rates, immediately followed by Powell's press conference.
Last December, the Fed signaled one rate cut for 2026. If that outlook changes today, even to zero cuts or a surprise hike, the market will react fast.
And keep an eye on any hints from Powell about his future, since his term as chairman wraps in May but he could stay on the board.
Analysts widely expect rates to stay at 3.5%–3.75% for the second meeting in a row, despite last year's three rapid cuts.
How are you positioned if the Fed pivots unexpectedly?
Markets just got a wake-up call.
February PPI surged 0.7%, more than double expectations. Stocks instantly took a hit, while crude oil held its ground as tensions flare in the Gulf with ongoing Iranian attacks.
Everyone's focused on the Fed, but inflation and geopolitics are hijacking the narrative.
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I'm going to short VOLX off the open tomorrow. Likely see Oil collapse and get our final risk on move before the disaster
