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Russia displaying weakness, once again:


A senior Russian official has confirmed a missile strike just breached the Bushehr nuclear plant's protection circuit. He warned that the risks of a catastrophic nuclear incident risk is skyrocketing with nearly 200 personnel having been evacuated.


This is a Russian constructed nuclear power plant and Moscow previously told Israel and the US to avoid striking this facility. They clearly don't take them seriously. It is long overdue that Russia makes its position very clear as to how it will respond. After all this has the potential to cause a major radiation leak in the region.

BA SHORT SETUP


Looks ready for a pullback on Monday before the final move up towards 218 which is where i will short

This was a beautiful trade that was identified before it set up and it played out perfectly!. Let's get a few more of these folks!

$BTC Short Idea

Based on this 3 candle "turtle soup" potential reversal on the daily, outlined the trade earlier in the day and then found the 1hr setup I wanted.

Let's see if it can go to target.

Bought 100%
Take Profit : 65988 $
Bitcoin

Bitcoin

2 Apr

CLOSEDSHORT

Invested Capital

1%

Selling Price

68214$

Buying Price

65988$

ROI

3.26%

This could be the 2026 version of the subprime crisis in 2008:


I have been tracking private credit for several years and it is becoming a very serious problem.


The US Treasury is meeting with domestic and international insurance regulators over the risks in private credit. Bear in mind this is a multi trillion dollar market. The insurance sector is heavily invested in private capital sector.


This market is lacking transparency, is highly illiquid and highly complex in terms of the private credit products on offer. This includes securitised products similar to what we saw in 2008 with subprime.


Many US insurers also have offshore reinsurance affiliates located in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. Enough said.

$EBAY - Adding a second entry. Still think it's got too strong of a narrative with good financials and will beat earnings in February.


The precious metals, trading cards, and new products they've been pushing out make it a clear winner in the space. Goldin auctions joining forces and going global was a strong strategic move. The PSA vault continues to gain adoption.


Even the more conservative analysts from banks have it priced in the $110 to $115 range. Taking a little bit of a risk getting exposure this late but this one feels like one that when it hits an ATH people will be wondering why they didn't take the "maps and shovel" play in a collectors trading market.

Sold 100%

Just de-risking on the bounce. Chart looks good, right back at resistance though and want to free up some cash.

eBay Inc.

eBay Inc.

1 Apr

CLOSEDLONG

Invested Capital

2.9%

Buying Price

92.19$

Selling Price

92.83$

ROI

0.70%

ETH long

Sold 100%

LTF risk off move incoming

Ethereum

Ethereum

1 Apr

CLOSEDLONG

Invested Capital

9%

Buying Price

2063$

Selling Price

2144$

ROI

3.92%

Quick Update: Bitcoin – Still Not Fully Convinced, But Ready To Pivot


This was always going to be a PIVOTAL move, so one side was always going to end up winning and it would be dramatic


No side won yet, so we haven't got the drama


When one side gives in, you will know


The market wanted to close the monthly and quarterly the way it did yesterday. I am going through all of those signals now and will report back soon on that.


For now, I wanted to show that this still has potential to turn back down


Price is hitting the 50 day SMA - getting above it for a third time should send this up higher. Rejection obviously leads to now lows


LMACD could puke back down (kinda looks like it will) or cross bullish and move about the zero line


RSI is close to making it above 50, but is also hitting a lost uptrend support line turned resistance


Still hard to flip bullish, but getting closer to having no choice but to do so


Overall, if this reverses higher I see two things: It will be short-lived and won't be new AT

... see more

SPX - Micro


SPX bounced in three waves so far and closed the 3/26 gap. It can be a or micro-3 or a per black count.


The red count is just in case, a crash count, which is not likely, given all the indicators we looked at.


One of the difficulties I am dealing with is whether War in Iran is actually a "big deal". My feeling is that both Russia and now the Middle East are in the process of adjusting to a world where oil is no longer power. The rise of renewable and EV makes the process of adjustment easier over time. I am told almost constantly that is the wrong view - which normally means I am right....

$SPY - The S&P 500 is currently on it's 6th losing week but if it bounces it might end at only 5. If it continues and go we go into the 7th losing week that has only happened 4 times in history with the last one being in 2022.


A bounce is completely normal and expected, even the 2022 fractal has us bouncing here and even coming pretty high before the next round of selling.


Might use the bounce as a time to trim some stocks

Since this is a pretty typical Turnaround Tuesday it makes sense to look to take advantage of the rally. In no way shape or form is there any indication that we just V shape reverse from here. Especially with $OIL and war stock still pushing up and economic data trending worse not better yet.