The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
USDJPY looks to have started wave 3 of 3. Most people will not see this danger until subwave 3 (of 3 of 3) begins and it convincingly breaks below 152
The subwave 2 retracement that comes tomorrow will be the prime time to short and/or long VIX + USDMXN
Tried something a little different with the data set than usual... We wanted to look today at a Cap-weight reading - something we haven't done before because of the associated math behind it. But it signals a more bearish headcount...
This nonsense about BRICS and this Unit currency persists. As was said to me very recently and directly, BRICS will continue to develop payment mechanisms and encourage the ever growing usage of national currencies. There is no BRICS currency on the horizon in any capacity whatsoever at this time.
We know what is going on and why we are one of the very few channels who has accurately laid out all the plans and developments of the multipolar world for over a decade including the BRICS.
Should I add to the wafer trade? Its a good question. Having looked at the wafer stocks, and read various analyst reports, there is no good third party metric to look at to signal now is the time to buy. We are only left with stocks. Today, SUMCO broke to new cycle highs, while WAF GY and GlobalWafers are also looking perky. From an investing point of view, its now when silicon wafer prices rise thats important - it is when the market begins to price in a future rise that is important. And that may be happening. The big tell is if SUMCO and WAF GY can trade up on a down day in the market.
Midday Sector Check
Indices are higher at midday. S&P up about 0.6%. Nasdaq leading with a 1.1% gain. Russell up 0.84% — small caps continue to catch a bid.
What's working:
What's not:
Looks like a falling wedge on VIX. I will buy VOLX on the overthrow into the apex of the triangle
Flows aren't strong at the moment despite that Dow figure and Japan at all time highs.
We're still being cautious... as a fade at the morning could arrive on concerns around Japanese bonds, U.S. treasury dumping... and other questions.
SilverM - The trade is up around 9.5-10k (more than 60% of initial credit). I have booked some quantity in this.
IMO though the trade is good to hold and should yield the entire credit and can be held until expiry. Don't see silver crossing 350k on th upside or 230k on the downside.
So the landslide victory for Takaichi in Japanese snap election has been interpreted as bullish due to his views on maintaing a loose fiscal policy. However, USDJPY is not really reflecting that. 1h bear div and strong rejection off the open. Still maintain that we are going to see a pretty savage move down this week for risk assets.
Given the action over the last couple days for NQ and ES, it looks like they're developing a running flat for wave 2. Which suggests to me that a powerful move down in wave 3 is close. Probably push up a little more tomorrow off the back of this news and I will be looking to reposition in the VIX futures long.
We identified a couple of errors in the prior newsletter—most notably, our Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) trade was completed with full profits taken but was not marked as such, and we missed a potential Macy’s (M) trade entry. Both have been corrected, and the updated issue is attached below.
Bobby
$RUT - Small cap index with a nice day. Overall still looks like a bullish structure. I still think both can be true where defensive stocks go up for their value/stability and high beta small caps go up because they offer high upside with less risk since they move much more. You can go smaller for example versus having to go really big to benefit from 5% gains on larger marketcap stocks. You can risk small amounts and get 20 to 30% moves.
Shorted the open
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
6 Feb
SHORTInvested Capital
2.4%
Selling Price
31.29$
Buying Price
31.92$
ROI
-2.03%
Am I wrong on bonds? JGBs and even German bond yields have hit highs recently...... but If I look at the performance of Staples... then seem to be implying a huge fall in bond yields...
Zappfresh is up another 6% with decent volumes, 25% up from first post price
Desco and Airfloa have also recovered from recent lows