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Watch Photronics Today (PLAB)

ASML shares up over 4% this morning after orders pretty much smashed estimates. Record Q4 orders came in nearly double what was expected. So the CapEx spend is clearly not having any issues when it comes to ASML.

That's always been our thesis. This is a pure monopoly. If the US wants to spend money, print money, and hand it out to keep this AI race against China competitive, a lot of that capital winds up in ASML's coffers.

Photronics is a supplier to ASML and they trade pretty much in tandem, just with a little bit of a lag. You might get a pullback today on ASML if it turns into a sell the news situation, maybe back to 1500 or so. But after that I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps cruising higher.

And if that's the case, Photronics hasn't caught up yet. Clear as day on the chart. ASML moved, PLAB didn't. So you've got a little arb play here.

This is about to become my new favorite thing. ASML moves, PLAB doesn't, jump in. Take a call a couple weeks out to a mon

Looking for bear porn? The spread between the KDP High Yield Daily and the 30 Year JGB has never been lower.

MXNJPY is right back to the scene of the crime = July 2024...

$GOLD - First gap just got filled. I like the $GLL entries today.

Today looks like defensive positioning in preparation for FOMC. They're flocking back into megacap tech while speculative sectors take a pounding.

This is what we want to see over the next few days if the Fed is providing support to the BOJ on the yen.

If the Japanese have been selling foreign assets because of the situation over there, the Fed stepping in is basically telling them to stop selling. Stop selling bonds, stop selling US insurance companies. Here, we'll give you some money, we'll help you out.

If that's happening right now while everything else is going haywire and everybody's paying attention to the shiny object, this is what AIG will do. Price goes higher, the 8 crosses above the 20. That's the classic setup for a momentum reversal and a nice move higher while everybody else is still confused about what's happening.

This is the stuff we look out for. When we see a chart setting up, we make note of it, add it to the watch list, and keep one eye on it. We need 20 eyes. One on the kid, the other 19 on all these setups we find during the week.

Let's watch each other's backs. Ten of us, that's 20 eyes. Somebody keep an eye

Good morning... I'm raising the Yellow Flag this morning... and I want you guys to understand why...

One of the most underappreciated risks in the market right now has nothing to do with earnings, valuations, or macro headlines. It sits inside the structure of the market itself.

Systematic strategies remain heavily long.

Trend-following CTAs, risk parity funds, and volatility control strategies collectively hold several hundred billion dollars of equity exposure. According to Bank of America, roughly $300 billion sits in CTA positioning alone, with another $400 billion split between risk parity and volatility targeting strategies. These positions are not discretionary. They respond to price, volatility, and trend signals.

Momentum has quietly deteriorated beneath the surface since October, even as headline indices remain near highs. When momentum fades while exposure stays elevated, downside becomes asymmetric. Small price moves can trigger large forced selling, not because investors chang

Is it time to lighten up on the precious metal trade? Very tricky question. The gold rally has been relatively orderly - but silver and platinum have been anything but. Oddly, shares outstanding in silver ETFs have not grown rapidly, suggesting that price movement is not as retail driven as I suspected. The other option is that central banks have decided to diversify from gold into "cheaper" options. Is possible, and if this is the case - then platinum still looks way to cheap. Historical platinum has traded at premium to gold, which leaves room for it to double again.

$ROSE - Breakout, re-test, and now back up we go. I've never seen so many accounts flip flopping on this one on X when that's what a strong volatile asset does. It's going to shake you out before the big push up.

MARKET REVIEW

As you guys know, DXY is the most important chart to determine risk appetite. And its the inverse of what everyone else is accustomed to. But it should be as clear as day now. DXY futures gapping down alongside US indices. It opened up below the HTF POC which it has been battling with for 6 months. We have FOMC on Wednesday so could see a bounce in DXY with another interest rate pause, maybe get a bearish retest of POC before it accelerates lower and brings risk assets down with it!

NAS100 is hanging on for dear life... I suspect the real acceleration comes after a little manipulation into FOMC on Wednesday. Not much to say here technically, the daily RSI is nothing short of horrific and I will not be thinking about a bottom until it gets down towards 30.

IWM was really the main thing holding up indices and now that looks set to lose the daily 5EMA-13SMA cloud, along with the channel (blue) which it has been tustling with for a few months. Once the deleveraging kicks in, sma

$FLNC - UPDATE - We have earnings coming up on February 4th. The chart and price action has been great and still looks like it wants to go higher.

Haven't decided how I want to play it quite yet as I'm worried if there's something that's not quite as bullish as people want we could easily see a red 15% day after earnings. I also don't want to realize profits in case the earnings is finally the big one that they've been waiting for and it's up another 20%.

Have already sold one of the positions to lock in some good profits so more likely than not I will probably hold through earnings but I might try and sneak in an Options Put in case there's a surprise (or just let it be).

I would be shocked to see it fully retrace the 50%+ move it's had on earnings which with all the buying before I think we are pricing in that it's most likely a good one with all the backlog of orders and additional contracts they've secured.

Just wanted to share my thoughts