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Sonny / ARTICLE

MARKET REVIEW As you guys know, DXY is the most important chart to determine risk appetite. And its the inverse of what everyone else is accustomed to. But it should be as clear as day now. DXY futures gapping down alongside US indices. It opened up below the HTF POC which it has been battling with for 6 months. We have FOMC on Wednesday so could see a bounce in DXY with another interest rate pause, maybe get a bearish retest of POC before it accelerates lower and brings risk assets down with it! NAS100 is hanging on for dear life... I suspect the real acceleration comes after a little manipulation into FOMC on Wednesday. Not much to say here technically, the daily RSI is nothing short of horrific and I will not be thinking about a bottom until it gets down towards 30. IWM was really the main thing holding up indices and now that looks set to lose the daily 5EMA-13SMA cloud, along with the channel (blue) which it has been tustling with for a few months. Once the deleveraging kicks in, small caps will be hit hardest given their risk profile. Ultimately, I'm looking for the major risk off move to accelerate after some shenanigans into FOMC on Wednesday.

Published Jan 25, 2026Updated Jan 25, 20263 min read
MARKET REVIEW As you guys know, DXY is the most important chart to determine risk appetite. And its the inverse of what everyone else is accustomed to. But it should be as clear as day now. DXY futures gapping down alongside US indices. It opened up below the HTF POC which it has been battling with for 6 months. We have FOMC on Wednesday so could see a bounce in DXY with another interest rate pause, maybe get a bearish retest of POC before it accelerates lower and brings risk assets down with it! NAS100 is hanging on for dear life... I suspect the real acceleration comes after a little manipulation into FOMC on Wednesday. Not much to say here technically, the daily RSI is nothing short of horrific and I will not be thinking about a bottom until it gets down towards 30. IWM was really the main thing holding up indices and now that looks set to lose the daily 5EMA-13SMA cloud, along with the channel (blue) which it has been tustling with for a few months. Once the deleveraging kicks in, small caps will be hit hardest given their risk profile. Ultimately, I'm looking for the major risk off move to accelerate after some shenanigans into FOMC on Wednesday.