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The Fed’s two-day meeting starts today. The decision comes at 2 p.m. tomorrow, and Warsh speaks right after. Our momentum readings haven’t moved much since yesterday. The Nasdaq is up almost 1% early. The AI names are leading, with Nebius up 11% and CoreWeave up 7%.

Russell Clark, a macro writer in England, compares compute to nuclear weapons. I think he’s right. Once a country has a handful of nuclear weapons, it doesn’t need more. U.S. policy has always been to have more anyway. Compute works the same way. Washington will never decide it has enough, which makes AI as much a national bet as a market one.

The country can’t have too much compute. A company can have too much debt. Musk said Sunday that more than 200 neoclouds will fail or get swallowed by bigger players. He said it right after SpaceX closed $40 billion in new debt. I think the strongest borrowers are happy to push the weaker ones out the window.

Clark also says you can’t pair-trade this group. When one name gets hit, they a

Tuesday Morning Market Briefing: Futures are flat after Monday’s rebound, with semiconductors leading while broader market participation remains narrow. $TSLA rallied, but $META remained under pressure. Oil is still elevated and bond yields remain a key risk, while the Fed meeting begins today ahead of tomorrow’s decision. All eyes are on $SOFI earnings this morning, followed by economic data and after-hours updates from $GOOG and $MSFT. The bounce is holding, but we need broader strength and easing macro pressure before calling it a sustainable recovery.

$NBIS — $158.74

A waterfall that has finally reached oversold, support, and drying volume at the same time — the setup is better, the turn is not confirmed yet.

Support: $155–159, then $146–148

Holding $155–159 keeps this a washout that can base; losing it opens the July washout low at $146–148, and that break would end the starter thesis.

price closed Friday at $158.74, below all three moving averages — the 50-day at $217.84, the 100-day at $219.78, and the 200-day at $175.88. Those three values match chart's tags exactly, so there is no guesswork in them. The fall is now 47 percent from the $299.86 June high, 38 percent from the October high of $255.10, and 24 percent just since the October 12 breakdown. Two weeks ago the read at $202.74 was to wait, and the $197–200 support it rested on has since broken — the wait was right, and this is a different price now.

What makes this level different is exhaustion, not strength. RSI sits at 30.2, right on the oversold line. Friday traded only 13.5

$TSLA — Price is coiling around its moving-average cluster. RSI is neutral, accumulation remains elevated, and volume is contracting. This is a decision point, but direction has not yet been confirmed.

Support: $370 then $352

Resistance: $373, $380, $390

A breakout above $373 could open a move toward $380 and $390. Losing $370 would weaken the setup and put $352 on watch.

$NOW breakout to new highs, above every hourly line, RSI near overbought. Support: 149.74, then 144.54. Resistance: 160. Strong but extended, the 50-hour is the line to hold.

$CRWD V-recovery back above every hourly line, RSI overbought, volume expanding hard. Support: 253.71, then 236.93. Resistance: 260, then 270. Momentum strong, extended.

$PENG — A round trip from the highs has left price below all three moving averages. RSI remains soft, but accumulation has stepped up and is holding. A bounce attempt is underway, although the trend has not yet turned.

Support: $50, then $47

Resistance: $57.20 , $59.55 , $64.61

Reclaiming $57.20 is the first sign of improving momentum. A move through $59.55 would strengthen the recovery case. Losing $50 would bring $47 into focus.

Serbia:

Serbia’s parliamentary elections have delivered a historic political upheaval, with the student-led opposition securing a projected parliamentary majority and ending more than a decade of political dominance by Aleksandar Vučić. The result reflects widespread public frustration with corruption, institutional failures and entrenched political dogma rather than an unequivocal desire to realign Serbia with the West.

Although Brussels may welcome the prospect of this new government, the victorious movement has maintained Serbia’s opposition to sanctions against Russia and its longstanding position on Kosovo. This creates a potentially uncomfortable situation for the European Union, which could find itself dealing with a government more committed to institutional reform but no more willing than its predecessor to accept key European foreign-policy demands. Meanwhile, Vučić’s political organisation retains substantial parliamentary representation and influence within state institutions