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Republic Research
Jan 26, 2026Public Post
Good morning... I'm raising the Yellow Flag this morning... and I want you guys to understand why... One of the most underappreciated risks in the market right now has nothing to do with earnings, valuations, or macro headlines. It sits inside the structure of the market itself. Systematic strategies remain heavily long. Trend-following CTAs, risk parity funds, and volatility control strategies collectively hold several hundred billion dollars of equity exposure. According to Bank of America, roughly $300 billion sits in CTA positioning alone, with another $400 billion split between risk parity and volatility targeting strategies. These positions are not discretionary. They respond to price, volatility, and trend signals. Momentum has quietly deteriorated beneath the surface since October, even as headline indices remain near highs. When momentum fades while exposure stays elevated, downside becomes asymmetric. Small price moves can trigger large forced selling, not because investor ... see more
Good morning... I'm raising the Yellow Flag this morning... and I want you guys to understand why... One of the most underappreciated risks in the market right now has nothing to do with earnings, valuations, or macro headlines. It sits inside the structure of the market itself. Systematic strategies remain heavily long. Trend-following CTAs, risk parity funds, and volatility control strategies collectively hold several hundred billion dollars of equity exposure. According to Bank of America, roughly $300 billion sits in CTA positioning alone, with another $400 billion split between risk parity and volatility targeting strategies. These positions are not discretionary. They respond to price, volatility, and trend signals. Momentum has quietly deteriorated beneath the surface since October, even as headline indices remain near highs. When momentum fades while exposure stays elevated, downside becomes asymmetric. Small price moves can trigger large forced selling, not because investors change their minds, but because models demand it. BofA’s models suggest that a 3–5% drawdown from current levels would activate the first major wave of CTA de-risking. In that scenario, CTAs could sell up to $154 billion in equities, with volatility control strategies contributing another $40–50 billion as realized volatility rises. This is what traders mean by "downside convexity." Losses accelerate not because fundamentals suddenly deteriorate, but because market structure amplifies movement. The danger is not that markets must fall. The danger is that if they do, they may fall faster than expected. In weeks like this, with Fed decisions, FX stress from Japan, and fragile momentum, understanding who owns risk matters more than why they own it. Markets don’t need bad news to break. Sometimes they just need a trigger. Remember... cash is a position. This headline from the Telegraph is absolutely brutal.
russellclark
Jan 26, 2026Public Post
Is it time to lighten up on the precious metal trade? Very tricky question. The gold rally has been relatively orderly - but silver and platinum have been anything but. Oddly, shares outstanding in silver ETFs have not grown rapidly, suggesting that price movement is not as retail driven as I suspected. The other option is that central banks have decided to diversify from gold into "cheaper" options. Is possible, and if this is the case - then platinum still looks way to cheap. Historical platinum has traded at premium to gold, which leaves room for it to double again.
Is it time to lighten up on the precious metal trade? Very tricky question. The gold rally has been relatively orderly - but silver and platinum have been anything but. Oddly, shares outstanding in silver ETFs have not grown rapidly, suggesting that price movement is not as retail driven as I suspected. The other option is that central banks have decided to diversify from gold into "cheaper" options. Is possible, and if this is the case - then platinum still looks way to cheap. Historical platinum has traded at premium to gold, which leaves room for it to double again.Is it time to lighten up on the precious metal trade? Very tricky question. The gold rally has been relatively orderly - but silver and platinum have been anything but. Oddly, shares outstanding in silver ETFs have not grown rapidly, suggesting that price movement is not as retail driven as I suspected. The other option is that central banks have decided to diversify from gold into "cheaper" options. Is possible, and if this is the case - then platinum still looks way to cheap. Historical platinum has traded at premium to gold, which leaves room for it to double again.Is it time to lighten up on the precious metal trade? Very tricky question. The gold rally has been relatively orderly - but silver and platinum have been anything but. Oddly, shares outstanding in silver ETFs have not grown rapidly, suggesting that price movement is not as retail driven as I suspected. The other option is that central banks have decided to diversify from gold into "cheaper" options. Is possible, and if this is the case - then platinum still looks way to cheap. Historical platinum has traded at premium to gold, which leaves room for it to double again.
Sonny
Jan 25, 2026Public Post
MARKET REVIEW As you guys know, DXY is the most important chart to determine risk appetite. And its the inverse of what everyone else is accustomed to. But it should be as clear as day now. DXY futures gapping down alongside US indices. It opened up below the HTF POC which it has been battling with for 6 months. We have FOMC on Wednesday so could see a bounce in DXY with another interest rate pause, maybe get a bearish retest of POC before it accelerates lower and brings risk assets down with it! NAS100 is hanging on for dear life... I suspect the real acceleration comes after a little manipulation into FOMC on Wednesday. Not much to say here technically, the daily RSI is nothing short of horrific and I will not be thinking about a bottom until it gets down towards 30. IWM was really the main thing holding up indices and now that looks set to lose the daily 5EMA-13SMA cloud, along with the channel (blue) which it has been tustling with for a few months. Once the deleveraging kicks i ... see more
MARKET REVIEW As you guys know, DXY is the most important chart to determine risk appetite. And its the inverse of what everyone else is accustomed to. But it should be as clear as day now. DXY futures gapping down alongside US indices. It opened up below the HTF POC which it has been battling with for 6 months. We have FOMC on Wednesday so could see a bounce in DXY with another interest rate pause, maybe get a bearish retest of POC before it accelerates lower and brings risk assets down with it! NAS100 is hanging on for dear life... I suspect the real acceleration comes after a little manipulation into FOMC on Wednesday. Not much to say here technically, the daily RSI is nothing short of horrific and I will not be thinking about a bottom until it gets down towards 30. IWM was really the main thing holding up indices and now that looks set to lose the daily 5EMA-13SMA cloud, along with the channel (blue) which it has been tustling with for a few months. Once the deleveraging kicks in, small caps will be hit hardest given their risk profile. Ultimately, I'm looking for the major risk off move to accelerate after some shenanigans into FOMC on Wednesday.MARKET REVIEW As you guys know, DXY is the most important chart to determine risk appetite. And its the inverse of what everyone else is accustomed to. But it should be as clear as day now. DXY futures gapping down alongside US indices. It opened up below the HTF POC which it has been battling with for 6 months. We have FOMC on Wednesday so could see a bounce in DXY with another interest rate pause, maybe get a bearish retest of POC before it accelerates lower and brings risk assets down with it! NAS100 is hanging on for dear life... I suspect the real acceleration comes after a little manipulation into FOMC on Wednesday. Not much to say here technically, the daily RSI is nothing short of horrific and I will not be thinking about a bottom until it gets down towards 30. IWM was really the main thing holding up indices and now that looks set to lose the daily 5EMA-13SMA cloud, along with the channel (blue) which it has been tustling with for a few months. Once the deleveraging kicks in, small caps will be hit hardest given their risk profile. Ultimately, I'm looking for the major risk off move to accelerate after some shenanigans into FOMC on Wednesday.MARKET REVIEW As you guys know, DXY is the most important chart to determine risk appetite. And its the inverse of what everyone else is accustomed to. But it should be as clear as day now. DXY futures gapping down alongside US indices. It opened up below the HTF POC which it has been battling with for 6 months. We have FOMC on Wednesday so could see a bounce in DXY with another interest rate pause, maybe get a bearish retest of POC before it accelerates lower and brings risk assets down with it! NAS100 is hanging on for dear life... I suspect the real acceleration comes after a little manipulation into FOMC on Wednesday. Not much to say here technically, the daily RSI is nothing short of horrific and I will not be thinking about a bottom until it gets down towards 30. IWM was really the main thing holding up indices and now that looks set to lose the daily 5EMA-13SMA cloud, along with the channel (blue) which it has been tustling with for a few months. Once the deleveraging kicks in, small caps will be hit hardest given their risk profile. Ultimately, I'm looking for the major risk off move to accelerate after some shenanigans into FOMC on Wednesday.
IncomeSharks
Jan 23, 2026Public Post
$FLNC - UPDATE - We have earnings coming up on February 4th. The chart and price action has been great and still looks like it wants to go higher. Haven't decided how I want to play it quite yet as I'm worried if there's something that's not quite as bullish as people want we could easily see a red 15% day after earnings. I also don't want to realize profits in case the earnings is finally the big one that they've been waiting for and it's up another 20%. Have already sold one of the positions to lock in some good profits so more likely than not I will probably hold through earnings but I might try and sneak in an Options Put in case there's a surprise (or just let it be). I would be shocked to see it fully retrace the 50%+ move it's had on earnings which with all the buying before I think we are pricing in that it's most likely a good one with all the backlog of orders and additional contracts they've secured. Just wanted to share my thoughts
$FLNC - UPDATE - We have earnings coming up on February 4th. The chart and price action has been great and still looks like it wants to go higher. Haven't decided how I want to play it quite yet as I'm worried if there's something that's not quite as bullish as people want we could easily see a red 15% day after earnings. I also don't want to realize profits in case the earnings is finally the big one that they've been waiting for and it's up another 20%. Have already sold one of the positions to lock in some good profits so more likely than not I will probably hold through earnings but I might try and sneak in an Options Put in case there's a surprise (or just let it be). I would be shocked to see it fully retrace the 50%+ move it's had on earnings which with all the buying before I think we are pricing in that it's most likely a good one with all the backlog of orders and additional contracts they've secured. Just wanted to share my thoughts
Rajeev Desai
Jan 23, 2026Public Post
My PF has been at 18 months Low as of today. But still EcoBoard, Vilin Biomed, Atvo Enterprise Ltd and Tirth Plastic were Buyers.... Feel good. I wanted to tell members, I am also not doing good with my PF. But believe me, I have seen Bear markets since 1991....so many.... Have patience. Remember, some of your stock will not move even when market will recover, perticularly the MicroCap. Because MicroCap are such stocks , that untill something comes up, news, stock don't move... You will have to keep patience. If you will ask me, why my this stock is not moving even when others have move, I will have no answer. What I can say? As I said, there are no answers for every questions. ... see more
TonySeverinoCMT
Jan 23, 2026Public Post
Bullish Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count: Valid Count, But Improbable – Here's Why This is a bullish alt Elliott Wave count that I am now seeing go around. Even I have considered this potential count From an anticipatory standpoint per EW, it makes sense as a 1-2/1-2 setup and Running Flat correction However, this would imply an impulsive wave (3) is next Wave (3) is the longest and strongest in an impulse wave – it must exceed ~600% of wave (1) That would mean that Bitcoin would need to go to over $550,000 during wave (3) to exceed the price movement of wave (1) I struggle to see how this happens within the next couple of years Possible, but an improbable count for that one reason
Bullish Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count: Valid Count, But Improbable – Here's Why This is a bullish alt Elliott Wave count that I am now seeing go around. Even I have considered this potential count From an anticipatory standpoint per EW, it makes sense as a 1-2/1-2 setup and Running Flat correction However, this would imply an impulsive wave (3) is next Wave (3) is the longest and strongest in an impulse wave – it must exceed ~600% of wave (1) That would mean that Bitcoin would need to go to over $550,000 during wave (3) to exceed the price movement of wave (1) I struggle to see how this happens within the next couple of years Possible, but an improbable count for that one reason
Republic Research
Jan 22, 2026Public Post
Two Names to Keep on Your Radar If you follow AI or semis, you already know ASML. They’re the quiet monopoly sitting in the middle of the whole thing. Most of the names people talk about, Nvidia, TSM, Intel, the hyperscalers, they all rely on ASML’s machines. There isn’t a real substitute. If you want cutting-edge chips, you go through them. Those EUV machines are massive, complicated, and priced close to half a billion dollars each. A big fab can need eight or ten, sometimes more, so the order sizes get stupid fast. That’s why ASML has the leverage it does, especially with the U.S. leaning on them not to ship the top end gear to China. What I like to watch next is the stuff that trades around ASML. Photronics (PLAB) is a critical piece of the supply chain. Different business, but the tape tends to rhyme. When ASML runs, PLAB usually follows. When ASML gaps and PLAB lags, that spread often closes. The other one is VAT Group (VACNY). They make ultra-specialized valves used in this eq ... see more
Two Names to Keep on Your Radar If you follow AI or semis, you already know ASML. They’re the quiet monopoly sitting in the middle of the whole thing. Most of the names people talk about, Nvidia, TSM, Intel, the hyperscalers, they all rely on ASML’s machines. There isn’t a real substitute. If you want cutting-edge chips, you go through them. Those EUV machines are massive, complicated, and priced close to half a billion dollars each. A big fab can need eight or ten, sometimes more, so the order sizes get stupid fast. That’s why ASML has the leverage it does, especially with the U.S. leaning on them not to ship the top end gear to China. What I like to watch next is the stuff that trades around ASML. Photronics (PLAB) is a critical piece of the supply chain. Different business, but the tape tends to rhyme. When ASML runs, PLAB usually follows. When ASML gaps and PLAB lags, that spread often closes. The other one is VAT Group (VACNY). They make ultra-specialized valves used in this equipment. Another niche monopoly. Strong balance sheet, long track record of profitability, solid cash flow. Not cheap, but high quality. If ASML is the headline, these two are the shadows that tend to move with it, sometimes later, sometimes quieter. Worth keeping all three on the watchlist. One moves, the others usually don’t stay still for long. 'ScottTwo Names to Keep on Your Radar If you follow AI or semis, you already know ASML. They’re the quiet monopoly sitting in the middle of the whole thing. Most of the names people talk about, Nvidia, TSM, Intel, the hyperscalers, they all rely on ASML’s machines. There isn’t a real substitute. If you want cutting-edge chips, you go through them. Those EUV machines are massive, complicated, and priced close to half a billion dollars each. A big fab can need eight or ten, sometimes more, so the order sizes get stupid fast. That’s why ASML has the leverage it does, especially with the U.S. leaning on them not to ship the top end gear to China. What I like to watch next is the stuff that trades around ASML. Photronics (PLAB) is a critical piece of the supply chain. Different business, but the tape tends to rhyme. When ASML runs, PLAB usually follows. When ASML gaps and PLAB lags, that spread often closes. The other one is VAT Group (VACNY). They make ultra-specialized valves used in this equipment. Another niche monopoly. Strong balance sheet, long track record of profitability, solid cash flow. Not cheap, but high quality. If ASML is the headline, these two are the shadows that tend to move with it, sometimes later, sometimes quieter. Worth keeping all three on the watchlist. One moves, the others usually don’t stay still for long. 'Scott
Republic Research
Jan 22, 2026Public Post
Top 10 Things Traders Need to Watch Today TACO Trade in Full Effect – Trump cancelled tariffs on eight European countries after the Davos speech. The "Tariffs Are Cancelled, Obviously" rally is lifting everything. Question now is whether this holds or if we get another headline reversal. Greenland Deal Details Emerging – NATO's Rutte says no transfer of sovereignty. Reports suggest "small pockets of land" similar to the UK-Cyprus arrangement and that it's still fluid. German Finance Minister says don't get hopes up too soon. More meetings today could shift sentiment either way. JGBs Finally Stabilizing – Nikkei up nearly 2%, snapping a five-day losing streak. Japanese bonds finding a floor after this week's carnage. The carry trade unwind pressure is easing for now, but watch if this holds. Fed Chair Announcement Imminent – Trump says he has "two or three left in mind." Polymarket has Warsh at 44%, Rieder at 31%, Waller at 14%. Announcement could come any day. A hawkish pick would s ... see more
Rajeev Desai
Jan 21, 2026Public Post
A question asked by a reader at X ...my reply is different then average thinking....So I am posting....Read my reply... @BandiSonam @rajuidesai hi sir, how about buying #iil ( nurture well foods LLC) now @rajuidesai First thing is, I don't like FV1 stock. Ofcourse P/E is low at 11,so a good value buy, but lot of competition here in this sector.... Price is at 37 , so looks cheap, but I look it this way. If it is 10 Fv, the price will be 370. Will I buy at 370? Me , No...but take your call. 11:10 AM · Jan 19, 2026 Then I added more analysis-in another reply... So If I decide to buy IIL at 37, means at 370 Fv 10, why would I not buy Vilas Transcore or RMC Switchgear which has far far better fundamentals then IIL according to me. 9:22 PM · Jan 20, 2026 Now isn't that easy to understand? IIL , means , Intergrated Ind Ltd. Make it simple. If FV 1 stock, multiply with 10, and make it 10 FV stock, and then see, whether it is still a buy? Because when u multiply with 10, to make it FV10 sto ... see more
Republic Research
Jan 21, 2026Public Post
With momentum negative, we have to look at our portfolio and ask five questions today... Question 2: Who is the marginal seller if this gets worse? Prices are not set by long-term investors in moments of stress. They’re set by whoever has to sell next . That’s leverage. That’s risk models. That’s volatility control, margin calls, and forced deleveraging. If a stock is owned by players who sell mechanically when volatility rises, fundamentals don’t matter at the onset. The selling has to finish first. Our next question will focus on hidden assumptions inside our investments.
Republic Research
Jan 21, 2026Public Post
Hey everyone. Quick intro since we just started here on Slice and I haven't introduced myself yet. I'm Scott Dunn. I'm an analyst here at Republic Research. I've worked with Garrett for about five years now, and known him a lot longer than that. My background is mostly tech. I come out of the semiconductor trading world and I own an independent board-level components distribution business, so I've spent years around chips, hardware, and how the tech market actually works. I also help behind the scenes with some of our systems and technical analysis. I'm excited we're here on Slice. This is basically our inner circle now, where you'll see the ideas I'm usually bugging Garrett about over text messages. I don't really share this stuff anywhere else outside of my personal networks and this is the only platform where I'll put my name directly on ideas like this. Questions, feel free to reach out. We're going to have fun with this and hopefully pick up some really nice winners along the w ... see more
Hey everyone. Quick intro since we just started here on Slice and I haven't introduced myself yet. I'm Scott Dunn. I'm an analyst here at Republic Research. I've worked with Garrett for about five years now, and known him a lot longer than that. My background is mostly tech. I come out of the semiconductor trading world and I own an independent board-level components distribution business, so I've spent years around chips, hardware, and how the tech market actually works. I also help behind the scenes with some of our systems and technical analysis. I'm excited we're here on Slice. This is basically our inner circle now, where you'll see the ideas I'm usually bugging Garrett about over text messages. I don't really share this stuff anywhere else outside of my personal networks and this is the only platform where I'll put my name directly on ideas like this. Questions, feel free to reach out. We're going to have fun with this and hopefully pick up some really nice winners along the way. I wanted to drop a quick note because a chart has been popping up lately that I can't stop looking at. Full disclosure: I bought a couple hundred shares of this the other day when it started to break out. I fully expected to wake up Monday morning and be stopped out. That's usually how these things go but instead it kept pushing higher, and that was kind of the moment where I realized I probably need to show this to other people. I'm not making a value call on this. I don't even really understand what it does, and the name alone is kind of ridiculous. But when setups like this get going, they can really get going. The stock is Alt5 Sigma (ALTS). It's a Trump-connected name. Eric Trump is on the board, and it's run by Zach Witkoff, the son of Steve Witkoff, a longtime Trump associate and insider. It's one of these crypto treasury plays that buys World Liberty Financial tokens, which is another Trump-linked company tied to the USD1 stablecoin and a potential bank charter. I'm just talking about the chart here. From a risk-reward standpoint it's pretty crazy. You're talking about risking maybe 10-15% to potentially make a few hundred percent if this thing really squeezes. The 8-day just crossed above the 20-day, price has surged, and it's breaking out while the broader market is still dealing with a lot of fear. That usually tells you someone is buying. We're right up against the 100-day now and it is overbought so chasing it probably isn't smart. A pullback to the 8-day would make more sense but if it clears this level the upside opens up fast. This thing has been to much higher levels before and the squeeze potential is real. Just putting it on your radar if you like these long-shot, asymmetric setups. The chart alone is worth a look. Excited to share some of the crazy stuff I stumble onto along the way. Expect to see more from me soon. Scott
Republic Research
Jan 21, 2026Public Post
Play defense today... Now is the time to start to assess what you own and ask the bigger question of WHY you own it. If you can't answer why you own a stock... take the time right now to try again. From there, it's about rotating into things that matter. We are witnessing a shocking end to 30 years of cheap money from Asia propelling U.S. equities and risk assets. It might not cause a true crash, but the era is coming to a close. Markets are trying to figure out how to readjust the risk.