The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
S&P 500 vs McClellan Indicators - Red Flag
SPX is riding above on top of the upper Keltner channel.
At the same time, the swing trend indicator, McClellan Summation Index, is positioned for a change of trend.
McClellan Oscillator says there is something not right with this SPX move. Where is the breadth?
30-Year Treasury Yield exceeded 5% - Highest in nearly 20 years.
Are they going higher?
My analysis indicates they should peak in the resistance region and head lower toward 2029-2030.
$INJ Long Idea
Another chart with some HTF potential for upside. IMO we prob need a week or two for TP1 to hit but these things are pretty hard to predict and time.
I am taking a position here for now and will be adding to it, given the opportunity.
Planning on taking 70% off at TP1 and moving stop to nearly break even.
Injective
13 May
LONGInvested Capital
0.1%
Buying Price
3.400$
Selling Price
5.268$
ROI
54.94%
Back-to-back hot inflation prints. CPI at 3.8% yesterday. PPI this morning at 1.4% month over month, nearly triple what the Street was expecting. That's the biggest single-month jump in producer prices since March 2022. Year over year at 6%. Energy up almost 8% on the month. Gasoline up 16%. Every stage of the pipeline just printed multi-year highs.
The reaction this morning has been telling. The broad market is selling hard. Over 60% of S&P 500 names are on the wrong side of the daily trend right now. The equal-weight readings on our system, which track what the average stock is doing, just broke their weekly trend for the first time in this run. Small caps are barely clinging on. The broader market is cracking under these numbers.
But the mega caps are fine. They sold off briefly this morning and bought right back. The largest names in the S&P and Nasdaq are holding up while everything underneath them deteriorates. The gap between what the biggest stocks are doing and what the average
The SVF where most of the value of Softbank lies these days has a concentrated profile. In SVF2 - Paypay is the biggest position, mainly due to its recent successful IPO. Much of the rest of the portfolio is loss making. The big uplift is from still private companies. Coupang, the biggest public holding in SVF1 has been crushed in last month or so... Or in essence, most of the value of Softbank is now in non-public companies.
AAPL Cycles
This is more of a fun observation than anything serious, but it’s still a pretty interesting chart. This is the weekly chart of Bitcoin - illustrating what happened to price in the past, following either a new Fed Chair appointment or re-appointment.
Latest Status (as of May 12, 2026):
Most analysts and reports anticipate Warsh will officially take over on or right around May 15, in time for a smooth transition (he could even lead the next FOMC meeting in mid-June).
This aligns with the historical pattern you’ve been tracking on the BTC chart. Keep an eye on news today/tomorrow for the exact swearing-in
Long CL
Crude Oil
12 May
LONGInvested Capital
4.6%
Buying Price
94.49$
Selling Price
101.5$
ROI
7.45%
$ONDO Long Idea Update
As you can see, we did get another move toward the lows, just as anticipated. We did not see a deep sweep but it gave enough to entertain a trade.
Ondo
12 May
LONGInvested Capital
0.1%
Buying Price
0.2729$
Selling Price
0.4240$
ROI
55.35%
Pakistan is set to launch its first-ever Panda Bond issuance, raising up to $250 million in yuan-denominated debt in China's onshore market. This initiative, part of a broader $1 billion programme, aims to diversify funding sources, lower borrowing costs, and strengthen foreign reserves.
The bonds will be guaranteed by the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
After their financial crisis in 2023, Pakistan is utilising this and in part to replace a $3.5bn debt facility from the UAE. This represents a major shift in Pakistan's sovereign debt strategy towards strengthening ties with Chinese capital markets.
BTW, for the Hurst cycles method, there is still a 20W target about 1% higher.
Stock Market Breadth Problem - Part 4
ARM is interesting. It is turning itself into an AI play - and its new CPU designs are supported by all the hyperscalers. But break ARM, you break Softbank, and you break OPEN AI. Alternatively, if OPEN AI and other AI agents start raising prices to generate cash, does demand drop? Is demand only strong because Chat GPT offers an internet search option uncluttered with ads?
VOLX looks ready to breakout
Softbank also has good form as a harbinger of market changes - LEADING the US in 1999, 2006, and 2021. Which leads back to an earlier post.... are equities right on Softbank, or are bond markets?
