crossborder

The latest FX forecast still favours EUR, but the breakdown matters: the signal is being driven by trend, valuation, and regime, not by carry. GBP also remains constructive, though its support comes more from regime and valuation than from a fully aligned factor set. SEK and SGD continue to screen positively, with trend a key driver in both.

In contrast, CAD remains soft on weak regime and valuation, while JPY is still being held back primarily by carry. In EM, ZAR stands out on strong carry and trend, and KRW remains constructive thanks to a strong trend signal despite negative carry.

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY UPDATE

Overview

Global Liquidity rose to US$193.3 trillion last week, according to the latest data.

• The 3‑month annualised growth rate held at 8.7%
• 12‑month growth increased to 7.9%

While headline liquidity is rising, the expansion remains narrowly driven by US Fed and Treasury policy, with underlying liquidity conditions still fragile. In particular, the Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) is held in check by weakening PBoC liquidity and ongoing Bank of Japan, ECB and Bank of England QT, highlighting a divergence between surface‑level strength and core liquidity dynamics. US dollar strength is a further headwind.

Global Liquidity (US$ Trillions)

• Latest level: US$193.29T
  (↑ from US$193.16T last week; ↑ from US$192.43T two weeks ago)
• 12‑month growth: 7.9%
  (↑ from 7.5% last week; ↑ from 7.0% two weeks ago)
• 3‑month annualised growth: 8.7%
  (unchanged from 8.7% last week; ↑ from 7.8% two weeks ago)

Interpretation

Headline liquidity remains on an upward trajectory, with levels and annual growth co