AJB Capital
AJB Capital
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AJB Capital

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Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

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Joined on 16th December 2025

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AJB Capital
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FOMC Preview — Where Conviction Stands Right Now


Heading into tomorrow's Fed decision, we wanted to share a snapshot from one of our back-end tools called the Conviction Engine. It scores all 502 S&P 500 stocks on a scale from -100 to +100 using six different factors: momentum, value, institutional flow, trend quality, liquidity risk, and more. Think of it as a way to measure where the weight of the evidence is leaning across the entire market at any given time.


Here's what it's flashing right now.


The macro read: Neutral with a bullish transition forming underneath. But it comes with some warning flags.


139 stocks are sitting in SELL territory. Only 52 are STRONG BUY. Average RSI across the index is 46.9, which is below 50. Just over half of the S&P is above its 200-day moving average.


The sectors tell the real story.


Energy and Utilities are running the table. Zero sell signals in either sector. Energy is averaging a +59 conviction score. Utilities at +51. These are not momentum-chaser sec

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FOMC Preview — Where Conviction Stands Right NowFOMC Preview — Where Conviction Stands Right Now