AJB Capital
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AJB Capital
Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.
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Joined on 16th December 2025
Baltimore, Maryland
We come in under a full red signal. The S&P is -20 on cap weight and -64 on equal weight. The Nasdaq is -5 and -16. The Russell is -40 and -53 and has been red for a week. Every one of those is a confirmed bearish reading. Nothing on the board is green except energy and health care, and energy is the only one with real breakouts.
Two things happened over the weekend.
Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after drone strikes on the pumping station Friday. That line runs from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea, and with Hormuz closed it was the only way to get Saudi crude out. It was carrying about 5 million barrels a day. There's no other route. Brent gapped up at the Sunday open and is above $107 this morning. The Oman meeting on reopening the strait was postponed with no new date.
Then Dario Amodei at Anthropic published an essay Saturday calling for the industry to slow the pace of AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk both said they agree with him. The AI trade got sold on it. Nasdaq
Two weeks ago the Fed stopped buying $40 billion a month of Treasury bills. That program ran from December to keep bank reserves cushioned through tax season. It was built for weeks like the one coming up, and it ended before the week arrived.
Circle Tuesday, September 15.
That's the corporate tax extension deadline. Businesses that filed for an extension in the spring have to pay on the 15th, and so does anyone making a third-quarter estimated payment. That money leaves the banking system and goes into the Treasury's account at the Fed, and bank reserves fall by whatever gets paid.
The same morning, dealers have to fund about $119 billion of new 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries. There's a 20-year auction that afternoon. The Fed opens its two-day meeting the same day. Triple witching is that Friday. The Bank of Japan decides the day after the Fed does.
So the banking system has less cash and more paper to finance on the same day.
This happened before, in September 2019. Corporate tax payments