AJB Capital

Top 10 Things Traders Need to Watch Today

Japanese Government Bonds

The 40-year yield broke above 4.23% (+40bps), 30-year above 3.90% (+41bps), and the 10-year hit 2.38% (+20bps). This is the real story driving global risk-off sentiment, not Greenland. The BoJ may need to dust off emergency bond-buying operations as early as tomorrow.

VIX Above 20

Fear gauge spiked 25%+ this morning, crossing the psychological threshold. Last time we touched 20 was late November, which marked the last S&P red period.

USD Weakness

Dollar index fell to 98.46 after Bessent tried to calm markets. EUR/USD topped 1.1700, USD/JPY slipped below 158. Watch for continued pressure if risk-off persists.

Gold's Record Run

Spot gold printed another all-time high at $4,737/oz despite surging yields. Silver also at ATHs above $95. Classic flight to safety while Treasuries get sold.

Trump's Davos Address Tomorrow (8:30am EST)

He'll speak on Greenland. Any escalation or de-escalation on European tariffs could whipsaw marke

How We Got Here

This weekend, we want to highlight one of the most important charts in global finance. This chart showcases the holdings of U.S. dollars against Gold since 1970.

Back in 1971, the U.S. came off the gold standard. The dollar because the official "reserve currency" in 1945 after Bretton Woods... but that dollar was backed by gold. When the U.S. could no longer back its currency with physical gold, the dollar floated... and the dollar became the primary instrument of trade... particularly in the oil markets.

What followed in the 1990s was an uptick in globalizing U.S. dollar denominated debt. When nations fund themselves and trade in dollars (and settle accounts), they need physical dollars, so they had held them for a long period of time.

But now, that shift from U.S. Treasuries to gold came after a huge shift in the way that nations perceived the U.S. After the U.S. weaponized the dollar and stripped Russia of her dollar reserves, other central banks looked around and worr