AJB Capital
AJB Capital
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AJB Capital

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Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

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Joined on 16th December 2025

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AJB Capital
Public Post

Trump put tariffs on imported drones. Signed yesterday, effective September 3. Anything over 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging gets hit at 100%. Smaller drones get 25%. Allies get 15%.


The reason given is national security. We buy too many drones and drone parts from overseas, mostly China, for something the military now depends on. The tariff is meant to force that production back home.


Whether it works long term is a different conversation. What matters this morning is that every foreign drone in this market just got more expensive, and the domestic makers didn't have to do anything to gain the advantage.


Kratos (KTOS) is the one we know best. The stock has been in a slump all year, working off a huge run from last year. Support has held around $50. It's up about 3% this morning, sitting right at its 200-day moving average. Clear that and turn it into support, and the year's damage starts to repair. Above there, $70 is the next base.


Red Cat (RCAT) has the same story on the chart.

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Trump put tariffs on imported drones. Signed yesterday, effective September 3. Anything over 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging gets hit at 1...Trump put tariffs on imported drones. Signed yesterday, effective September 3. Anything over 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging gets hit at 1...
AJB Capital
Public Post

We're coming in more cautious than we've been in a while. CPI lands tomorrow, and this market has run hot for a week and a half now.


Nothing has actually broken yet. Our momentum numbers are still green. Capital is still coming in. Small caps firmed up overnight, and the FNGD is still bleeding lower. The rally is intact.


The problem is oil. The OILU is breaking out again. Brent touched 90 last night as the Hormuz deal stalls and the hostilities pick back up. When oil runs, it leans on everything, and you can already see it in the 10-year, which pushed back over 4.70 this morning.


Rising oil means rising costs, and rising costs bring the rate fear right back.


That's a bad setup heading into an inflation print.


The market's priced for perfection up here, oil is turning into a real problem, and this is usually the point where the first person heads for the exit and everyone else follows.


We're not fighting the trend. We stay long what's working. We just keep it light and watch the door until

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AJB Capital
Public Post

The jobs number just landed, and it was ugly. The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. The Street was looking for a gain of 83,000. It's the first outright decline in months, and they revised the prior two months down by a combined 103,000. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1%, but the hiring picture is clearly softening.


Stocks rallied on it anyway.


All week this run had one real threat hanging over it. A hot jobs print would have handed the Fed's hawks their argument, put the September hike back on the table, and pushed yields higher. Higher yields are what's been leaning on this whole mechanical rally. A number this weak flips all of that. It takes the hike off the table and turns the conversation toward the Fed holding, maybe even cutting. Futures climbed and yields started dropping the second it hit.


This is the bad-news-is-good-news market we've been in for weeks. A weakening economy that forces the Fed to ease is exactly what a market running on cheap money wants.


The read for today is sim

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