We're coming in more cautious than we've been in a while. CPI lands tomorrow, and this market has run hot for a week and a half now. Nothing has actually broken yet. Our momentum numbers are still green. Capital is still coming in. Small caps firmed up overnight, and the FNGD is still bleeding lower. The rally is intact. The problem is oil. The OILU is breaking out again. Brent touched 90 last night as the Hormuz deal stalls and the hostilities pick back up. When oil runs, it leans on everything, and you can already see it in the 10-year, which pushed back over 4.70 this morning. Rising oil means rising costs, and rising costs bring the rate fear right back. That's a bad setup heading into an inflation print. The market's priced for perfection up here, oil is turning into a real problem, and this is usually the point where the first person heads for the exit and everyone else follows. We're not fighting the trend. We stay long what's working. We just keep it light and watch the door until CPI clears.
Published Aug 11, 2026Updated Aug 11, 20263 min read
We're coming in more cautious than we've been in a while. CPI lands tomorrow, and this market has run hot for a week and a half now. Nothing has actually broken yet. Our momentum numbers are still green. Capital is still coming in. Small caps firmed up overnight, and the FNGD is still bleeding lower. The rally is intact. The problem is oil. The OILU is breaking out again. Brent touched 90 last night as the Hormuz deal stalls and the hostilities pick back up. When oil runs, it leans on everything, and you can already see it in the 10-year, which pushed back over 4.70 this morning. Rising oil means rising costs, and rising costs bring the rate fear right back. That's a bad setup heading into an inflation print. The market's priced for perfection up here, oil is turning into a real problem, and this is usually the point where the first person heads for the exit and everyone else follows. We're not fighting the trend. We stay long what's working. We just keep it light and watch the door until CPI clears.
