AJB Capital
AJB Capital
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AJB Capital

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Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

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Joined on 16th December 2025

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AJB Capital
Public Post

Gold and silver are breaking down, and the miners are where you can see it clearly.


GDXU, the leveraged miner fund, has broken under its key moving averages. That's the tell. When the leveraged vehicle goes first, it isn't the metal being repriced. It's the leverage coming out.


Gold has seen a large speculative buildup over the past few weeks. Negative momentum flushes that out, and it's flushing now. The paper is unwinding, and it can move a lot further and faster than anyone expects, because leveraged positions don't get sold gradually.


None of that breaks the thesis. Central banks are still buying. The debt is still $40 trillion. Every road out of this still runs through more money getting created. The case for owning gold over the next few years hasn't changed at all this week.


What changed is that gold is trading as a momentum position right now instead of a monetary one, and momentum is going the wrong way.


The levels worth writing down are $4,000 on gold and $60 on silver. That's whe

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AJB Capital
Public Post

Energy Transfer (ET) is back under the price its chairman paid last week. Kelcy Warren bought a million units on August 18 and 19, about $21.3 million of his own money at an average of $21.26, which was slightly above where it closed that day. He already owns roughly 9% of the company. He's the last person alive who needs more of it and he bought anyway.


Energy Transfer doesn't drill anything. Midstream gets paid on the volume moving through the pipe, not on what a barrel sells for. So this selloff is sympathy and it's handed you a better price than the chairman got. The MACD is crossing down, so let that finish and watch for it to curl back positive before you step in.


The refiners are the ones with real exposure here. Those record refining margins exist because supply got knocked out. Put barrels back in the market and the margins come in with them.


PBF Energy (PBF) is sitting right on its 20-day. There's a short here already, and it gets cleaner if it cracks that line.


Buy the in-the-mo

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Energy Transfer (ET) is back under the price its chairman paid last week. Kelcy Warren bought a million units on August 18 and 19, about $21.3 mill...
AJB Capital
Public Post

Finviz added a nice anchored VWAP tool. Click the button on the image, then click the candle you want to anchor to.


Look at Moderna. The stock closed up 177% yesterday, a record day, after its cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a large trial. Pull up a five-minute chart and anchor to the candle where it took off yesterday morning.


That line is the average price everyone has paid since the move began, weighted by volume. Moderna has come back and touched it several times since, and it bounced every time. Each of those was a clean short-term trade.


One line defines right and wrong. If price holds, you get the move. If it breaks, your stop sits right there and it's cheap, because a name that loses that line usually rolls straight over. You're not guessing where to put your risk.


The line carries weight because volume built it. Price only gets pushed under a volume-weighted average by size, and not the kind retail can generate. That's institutions leaving, and you find out the moment it ha

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Finviz added a nice anchored VWAP tool. Click the button on the image, then click the candle you want to anchor to.Finviz added a nice anchored VWAP tool. Click the button on the image, then click the candle you want to anchor to.