Energy Transfer (ET) is back under the price its chairman paid last week. Kelcy Warren bought a million units on August 18 and 19, about $21.3 million of his own money at an average of $21.26, which was slightly above where it closed that day. He already owns roughly 9% of the company. He's the last person alive who needs more of it and he bought anyway. Energy Transfer doesn't drill anything. Midstream gets paid on the volume moving through the pipe, not on what a barrel sells for. So this selloff is sympathy and it's handed you a better price than the chairman got. The MACD is crossing down, so let that finish and watch for it to curl back positive before you step in. The refiners are the ones with real exposure here. Those record refining margins exist because supply got knocked out. Put barrels back in the market and the margins come in with them. PBF Energy (PBF) is sitting right on its 20-day. There's a short here already, and it gets cleaner if it cracks that line. Buy the in-the-money $69 put. The 8-day sits at $70.71, and that's your stop. If price climbs back over that line you're wrong, you cut it, and it costs you very little to find out. If a deal actually comes together on Hormuz, that's the trade that pays.
