AJB Capital

Chart of the Day

This is Michael Howell and Global Liquidity Index...

What do you notice? The U.S. is at the top... China is just... getting... started...

In typical cycles, after these tops, U.S. investors would typically shift to defensives (XLP), while speculation builds in metals and materials...

Meanwhile, China pumps and benefits... Metals. That copper chart since August is stunning. There is a lot of volatility ahead. But there's good reason to keep with momentum on SCCO and MLI moving forward with hard stops at key moving averages.

RIG has pulled back and stopped out...

As I had warned at Capital Wave and over at Money Printer... there was ample reason to expect a "sell the news" event. Instead of trying to chase markets... It's important to understand that the purpose of a market is to sell. I have said it's not a great time for upstream producers linked explicitly to prices.

New traders need to set key stops and recognize that premarket behavior can become a fast setup for profit-taking. It sucks you in and can spit you out.

OPEC did provide support to markets by NOT increasing output. Energy signals are still positive, but largely fueled by a big rally on the back of DOWNSTREAM refining names.

This isn’t optimism. It’s mechanics.

Bonuses get deployed, underweight managers chase benchmarks, and dealers lean into suppressed volatility. The historical edge exists because positioning resets, not because fundamentals magically improve. Watch liquidity conditions.

Seasonality works until rates, funding, or credit surprise late. When it fails, it fails violently.

The Bank of China will print some more too...

This is a tailwind, not a thesis.