This isn’t optimism. It’s mechanics.
Bonuses get deployed, underweight managers chase benchmarks, and dealers lean into suppressed volatility. The historical edge exists because positioning resets, not because fundamentals magically improve. Watch liquidity conditions.
Seasonality works until rates, funding, or credit surprise late. When it fails, it fails violently.
The Bank of China will print some more too...
This is a tailwind, not a thesis.
