AJB Capital
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AJB Capital
Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.
434Posts
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Joined on 16th December 2025
Baltimore, Maryland
This is where VWAP becomes so important.
Understanding VWAP and Why Deviation Bands Matter
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is one of the most important intraday indicators that institutional traders watch.
Unlike a simple moving average, which treats every price equally, VWAP weights each price by the volume traded at that price. This tells you where the real money changed hands throughout the day.
Think of it this way: if 10,000 shares traded at $50 and only 100 shares traded at $55, the "fair price" for the day is much closer to $50 than a simple average would suggest. VWAP captures that.
Why the 1-Minute Anchored VWAP Matters
When you anchor VWAP to the 1-minute opening price, you're establishing the day's baseline from the very first meaningful price action. This becomes your reference point - are buyers or sellers in control relative to where the day started?
The Deviation Bands Are Where It Gets Interesting
Standard deviation bands around VWAP (typically 1, 2, and 3 standard devia
Top 10 Things to Watch Today
Thursday, February 5, 2026
1. ECB and BoE Rate Decisions Take Center Stage
Both the European Central Bank and Bank of England announce policy decisions today, with rates expected to hold steady at 2.00% and 3.75%, respectively. Markets will parse Lagarde's comments on EUR strength and inflation undershooting, while Bailey faces questions amid UK political turmoil.
2. Google Doubles AI Spending, Lifts Chip Sector
Despite missing cloud expectations and trading down 2.4% pre-market, Alphabet's decision to double AI capital expenditure is boosting semiconductor names, including ASML (+1.1%). This signals Big Tech remains committed to the AI buildout even as investors scrutinize returns on massive infrastructure investments.
3. US-Iran Talks Back On for Friday
After a false start over venue disputes, Iran's Foreign Minister confirmed direct talks with the US will proceed in Oman on Friday. Crude benchmarks remain volatile amid this development, with Brent hovering ne