Top 10 Things to Watch Today
Thursday, February 5, 2026
1. ECB and BoE Rate Decisions Take Center Stage
Both the European Central Bank and Bank of England announce policy decisions today, with rates expected to hold steady at 2.00% and 3.75%, respectively. Markets will parse Lagarde's comments on EUR strength and inflation undershooting, while Bailey faces questions amid UK political turmoil.
2. Google Doubles AI Spending, Lifts Chip Sector
Despite missing cloud expectations and trading down 2.4% pre-market, Alphabet's decision to double AI capital expenditure is boosting semiconductor names, including ASML (+1.1%). This signals Big Tech remains committed to the AI buildout even as investors scrutinize returns on massive infrastructure investments.
3. US-Iran Talks Back On for Friday
After a false start over venue disputes, Iran's Foreign Minister confirmed direct talks with the US will proceed in Oman on Friday. Crude benchmarks remain volatile amid this development, with Brent hovering near $68.50/bbl as traders weigh potential sanctions-relief scenarios.
4. Silver Crashes 10.5%, Drags Precious Metals Complex
Silver plunged as much as 16% overnight to $73.55/oz before recovering to around $80/oz, its sharpest single-session drop in months. The selloff pulled spot gold below $5,000/oz and reflects broader risk-off sentiment amid tech-sector weakness and concerns about AI demand.
5. UK Political Crisis Hammers Gilts and Sterling
Gilts are underperforming by 40 ticks, and GBP is the G10 laggard as PM Starmer faces resignation calls over the Mandelson-Epstein ambassador controversy. Polymarket odds of Starmer's departure by June 30th have doubled to 47%, adding a political risk premium to UK assets.
6. Qualcomm and ARM Sink Despite Earnings Beats
Qualcomm drops 11%, and ARM falls 6% pre-market even after topping estimates, as investors question mobile demand and AI chip timelines. The reaction underscores elevated expectations in the semiconductor space and sets a cautious tone ahead of more tech earnings.
7. Amazon Headlines Today's Major Earnings Slate
Amazon reports after the bell alongside ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Roblox, Reddit, and Barrick Mining. After mixed reactions to other mega-cap tech results this week, Amazon's AWS growth and retail margins will be critical for market sentiment.
8. New START Treaty Expires Today
The last major US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement officially ends today with no renewal effort from either side. While expected, the expiration removes transparency on strategic weapons and adds to an already tense geopolitical backdrop.
9. Copper Breaks Below $13K on AI Demand Fears
LME copper dropped to $12,860/t as fears grow that AI efficiency gains could reduce industrial demand across sectors. The red metal's slide reflects broader concerns about the tech-driven growth narrative potentially peaking.
10. US Jobless Claims and JOLTS Data Due
Weekly claims data will show whether the labor market maintains its "low hiring, low firing" equilibrium, while delayed JOLTS figures finally arrive following the government shutdown. Fed's Bostic speaks today as markets look for confirmation that rate cuts remain on hold.