AJB Capital
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AJB Capital
Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.
434Posts
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18%Best ROI
Joined on 16th December 2025
Baltimore, Maryland
10 Things Traders Must Know Today (Feb 11, 2026)
1. NFP Day. Finally.
The delayed January jobs report drops this afternoon with expectations at 70K, but the whisper number has collapsed to 37K after WH adviser Hassett talked it down. The range of estimates spans -10K to +108K, so buckle up. This print comes with benchmark revisions that could reshape the entire labor market narrative.
2. The Labor Market is Flashing Yellow
Every recent read has come in soft. Challenger cuts hit the highest January level since 2009, JOLTS fell to the lowest since September 2020, ADP was weak, and continuing claims are easing. A miss today likely locks in that June cut (already fully priced at -25.2bps) and could pull April pricing above its current 40%.
3. Trump Threatens a Second Carrier Strike on Iran
Axios reports Trump said he might send another carrier to strike Iran if talks fail. This pushed crude higher despite a massive +13.4M barrel private inventory build. WTI is nearing $65/bbl, and Brent is ba
Tried something a little different with the data set than usual... We wanted to look today at a Cap-weight reading - something we haven't done before because of the associated math behind it. But it signals a more bearish headcount...
Midday Sector Check
Indices are higher at midday. S&P up about 0.6%. Nasdaq leading with a 1.1% gain. Russell up 0.84% — small caps continue to catch a bid.
What's working:
- Semis are ripping. The chip names are extending Friday's bounce hard. NVDA +3.5%, AMD +3.6%, AVGO +4.7%. SOXL is catching a bid and acting like last week's selloff was just a shakeout. Oracle upgraded to Buy and running +11%.
- Big tech broadly green. MSFT +2.9%, PLTR +6.9%, TSLA +2.4%, META +2.9%, GOOG +0.8%. APP continues to be a monster at +15%.
- Gold holding above $5,000. PBoC bought for the 15th straight month. China reportedly telling banks to diversify away from Treasuries. That's a structural bid under metals. Dollar weakness (DXY near 97.3) is adding fuel.
- Financials and Energy still catching rotation flows. The "Great Rotation" theme is alive. JPM, GS seeing inflows as the yield curve steepens. Energy quietly outperformed everything last quarter (+16%).
What's not:
- Software remains under pressure. INTU -1.2%, ACN -2.
Flows aren't strong at the moment despite that Dow figure and Japan at all time highs.
We're still being cautious... as a fade at the morning could arrive on concerns around Japanese bonds, U.S. treasury dumping... and other questions.
