1. US-Iran Nuclear Talks Underway in Geneva.
Iran announced readiness to reduce uranium enrichment and approved an IAEA visit to nuclear facilities, though Supreme Leader Khamenei issued hawkish rhetoric about "slapping" the US military. Markets are treating this as a binary risk event since a breakdown could lead to US strikes on Iran.
2. US Futures Red on Return from Holiday.
ES and RTY down 0.3%, NQ down 0.7% as US traders come back from Presidents' Day with no prior session to price in weekend developments.
3. UK Labor Market Deteriorating.
Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5.2% (just below BoE's 5.3% peak forecast), wages cooled across both measures, and BoE March cut pricing edged higher heading into Wednesday's CPI print.
4. 10-Year Treasury Yield Approaching 4%.
USTs bid on risk-off flows and geopolitical uncertainty, with the 10yr at 4.025% and trading at levels not seen since late November 2025.
5. Gold Slips Below $5,000, Silver Crushed.
Gold pulled back after recent highs with
