TonyTheBullSeverino

Bitcoin Monthly Bollinger Band Update – Less Than 72 Hours Left

Bitcoin has made a new all-time high and is in the midst of working on a strong May monthly candlestick

In the most ideal scenario for a strong bullish outcome, we want to see BTCUSD close May above $112,391. This would confirm a close above the upper Bollinger Band.

It is preferable to see a close even higher, towards $113,000 to $115,000. A close too far above the upper Bollinger Band could lead to some type of mean reversion before it continues higher.

A close above the upper Bollinger Band is considered a BUY signal.

The Bollinger Bands are calculated using a 20-period simple moving average and two bands set at +/- 2 standard deviations. It is rare for BTCUSD to make a move above +2 or below -2 and requires significant strength – hence why these moves often lead to sustainable breakouts and trends.

Failure to close above the upper Bollinger Band in May doesn't necessarily mean we won't get such a move in the coming months.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count – May 20, 2025

By request, here is my updated Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500

I believe we are still in a larger correction, but because the initial selloff was so sharp, we had a strong bounce first – however, I think ultimately a lower low is made as the larger degree (c) wave completes next

The trend began with a leading contracting diagonal, then a 1/2 before the largest portion of the third wave began.

The final sequence was an ending expanding diagonal consisting of five waves of abc. After the final wave v of 5, the correction began

The SPX is retesting the underside boundary to that ending expanding diagonal now

It can go as high as 6050 to touch the lower boundary of the uptrend channel before reversing

As long as a new ATH isn't made, this count is valid. Invalidation above ATH

Bitcoin Hurst Cycle Theory Tutorial

Learn how to properly use the time cycle tool combined with a practice called valid trend lines. Plus, see why Bitcoin might be at the end of a larger, 12 year cycle in addition to ending the most recent 4 year cycle..