Bitcoin Monthly Bollinger Band Update – Less Than 72 Hours Left Bitcoin has made a new all-time high and is in the midst of working on a strong May monthly candlestick In the most ideal scenario for a strong bullish outcome, we want to see BTCUSD close May above $112,391 . This would confirm a close above the upper Bollinger Band. It is preferable to see a close even higher, towards $113,000 to $115,000. A close too far above the upper Bollinger Band could lead to some type of mean reversion before it continues higher. A close above the upper Bollinger Band is considered a BUY signal . The Bollinger Bands are calculated using a 20-period simple moving average and two bands set at +/- 2 standard deviations. It is rare for BTCUSD to make a move above +2 or below -2 and requires significant strength – hence why these moves often lead to sustainable breakouts and trends. Failure to close above the upper Bollinger Band in May doesn't necessarily mean we won't get such a move in the coming months. It simply means we didn't get the BUY signal or the breakout quite yet. The 2019 peak and second-2021 peak both failed to get above the upper Bollinger Band, acting as non-confirmation of a sustainable trend . Unlike past cycles, the Bollinger Bands continue to tighten. Typically this late in a cycle they are in full expansion. Either this means that the true move in Bitcoin hasn't happened yet, or it's already over and volatility is diminishing. Overall, Bitcoin remains rather difficult to read from a technical standpoint.
