TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

704Posts
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183%Best ROI
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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
Mar 26, 2026Public Post
Bitcoin BTCUSD versus BTC CME Analysis Comparison: This Could Explain The Confusion Hey everyone – Doing my best to try to clear up how confusing Bitcoin has been. I have been slightly quiet, watching and trying to find the right signals versus forcing it. I have pointed this out recently, but there is a huge discrepancy between BTCUSD and BTC CME futures. I think this is the reason for the confusing price action that isn't quite picking a side on the BTCUSD chart. During the bull market, I would watch BTC CME futures more than I would BTCUSD. Over the last year and a half to two years, this didn't matter as much. For whatever reason, I need to watch it again, because look at how different they are. On the left we have BTC CME futures, the right BTCUSD CME has the LMACD starting to converge towards a bearish crossover. Price never made it into the cloud. BTCUSD price went into the cloud and is now falling below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. These are about to cross bearish. The LMAC ... see more
Bitcoin BTCUSD versus BTC CME Analysis Comparison: This Could Explain The Confusion Hey everyone – Doing my best to try to clear up how confusing Bitcoin has been. I have been slightly quiet, watching and trying to find the right signals versus forcing it. I have pointed this out recently, but there is a huge discrepancy between BTCUSD and BTC CME futures. I think this is the reason for the confusing price action that isn't quite picking a side on the BTCUSD chart. During the bull market, I would watch BTC CME futures more than I would BTCUSD. Over the last year and a half to two years, this didn't matter as much. For whatever reason, I need to watch it again, because look at how different they are. On the left we have BTC CME futures, the right BTCUSD CME has the LMACD starting to converge towards a bearish crossover. Price never made it into the cloud. BTCUSD price went into the cloud and is now falling below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. These are about to cross bearish. The LMACD is crossing back bearish, after crossing bearish, then immediately crossing back bullish BTC CME is more bearish than BTCUSD. At one point last week, BTCUSD Coinbase traded at a premium over BTCUSDT Binance. I saw some Coinbase volume analysis from another analyst that also suggested there was a buyer on Coinbase absorbing the selling. However, it might have been a buy wall type situation, where the wall is then pulled and price then plummets. Technicals look plenty bearish now, and they're getting to the point where the weekly swing trade is going to be nullified. Worse yet, the monthly and quarterly close in 5 days. If this falls further, it's another nasty long black down candlestick after the last one, which confirmed an evening star pattern. This could continue to look really ugly for a couple more quarters if this closes downs stronger on the quarterly. I will do some quarterly analysis next to see what that might look like. Now remember, although we started to see bullish BTC technicals formulate, the stock market's weight if it is really preparing to topple, would cause ALL assets to start to turn bearish, even if their technicals were bullish. Even energy and oil or metals should take a good hit if the stock market makes a major drop down. I cannot be certain of course, but the S&P 500 looks some of the worst I've seen it, and the move hasn't happened yet. The longer it takes, the stronger it will be. I genuinely think it is a moment to derisk wherever possible
TonySeverinoCMT
Mar 20, 2026Public Post
Bitcoin BTCUSD / BTC CME Futures Comparison Analysis Sometimes, the CME Bitcoin chart ends up giving us a better signal. I am going to get back into the habit of checking there more often again. I look at weekly and monthly closes and opens for gaps, but the daily hasn't been significantly different in almost two years. Today, I am noticing that there's a strong difference in these charts. Note immediately that the LMACD is much lower on the CME chart. There's also a lack of a close above the upper Bollinger Band on the CME chart. This is the real kicker. I think that the BTCUSD chart we got a couple false signals, whereas the CME chart shows us the buy signals didn't happen yet. Holding above the basis line the way price has, is a strong, positive development. Price is also above the 50 day MA, the LMACD is diverging up, and price is just about back into the cloud. We'll know more by about 1030AM tomorrow how the day might go. Markets open at 930AM ET, and by 1030!M we've seen the ... see more
Bitcoin BTCUSD / BTC CME Futures Comparison Analysis Sometimes, the CME Bitcoin chart ends up giving us a better signal. I am going to get back into the habit of checking there more often again. I look at weekly and monthly closes and opens for gaps, but the daily hasn't been significantly different in almost two years. Today, I am noticing that there's a strong difference in these charts. Note immediately that the LMACD is much lower on the CME chart. There's also a lack of a close above the upper Bollinger Band on the CME chart. This is the real kicker. I think that the BTCUSD chart we got a couple false signals, whereas the CME chart shows us the buy signals didn't happen yet. Holding above the basis line the way price has, is a strong, positive development. Price is also above the 50 day MA, the LMACD is diverging up, and price is just about back into the cloud. We'll know more by about 1030AM tomorrow how the day might go. Markets open at 930AM ET, and by 1030!M we've seen the biggest chunk of morning volatility. There's another uptick in the afternoon as positions are closed for the weekend. The BTCUSD/BTCUSDT spread has turned back into a discount, so that's overall bearish for Bitcoin. I sense that we probably do pump here, but it will be short squeeze driven, run out of steam faster as a result, and reverse back sharply down to new lows. At this point, the trade has been far choppier than I have liked. I'll update any chances for entries tomorrow. I've also got a ton of S&P 500 analysis coming as I think its the key to predicting most of what's about to happen in the days to come.