Bitcoin BTCUSD versus BTC CME Analysis Comparison: This Could Explain The Confusion Hey everyone – Doing my best to try to clear up how confusing Bitcoin has been. I have been slightly quiet, watching and trying to find the right signals versus forcing it. I have pointed this out recently, but there is a huge discrepancy between BTCUSD and BTC CME futures. I think this is the reason for the confusing price action that isn't quite picking a side on the BTCUSD chart. During the bull market, I would watch BTC CME futures more than I would BTCUSD. Over the last year and a half to two years, this didn't matter as much. For whatever reason, I need to watch it again, because look at how different they are. On the left we have BTC CME futures, the right BTCUSD CME has the LMACD starting to converge towards a bearish crossover. Price never made it into the cloud. BTCUSD price went into the cloud and is now falling below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. These are about to cross bearish. The LMACD is crossing back bearish, after crossing bearish, then immediately crossing back bullish BTC CME is more bearish than BTCUSD. At one point last week, BTCUSD Coinbase traded at a premium over BTCUSDT Binance. I saw some Coinbase volume analysis from another analyst that also suggested there was a buyer on Coinbase absorbing the selling. However, it might have been a buy wall type situation, where the wall is then pulled and price then plummets. Technicals look plenty bearish now, and they're getting to the point where the weekly swing trade is going to be nullified. Worse yet, the monthly and quarterly close in 5 days. If this falls further, it's another nasty long black down candlestick after the last one, which confirmed an evening star pattern. This could continue to look really ugly for a couple more quarters if this closes downs stronger on the quarterly. I will do some quarterly analysis next to see what that might look like. Now remember, although we started to see bullish BTC technicals formulate, the stock market's weight if it is really preparing to topple, would cause ALL assets to start to turn bearish, even if their technicals were bullish. Even energy and oil or metals should take a good hit if the stock market makes a major drop down. I cannot be certain of course, but the S&P 500 looks some of the worst I've seen it, and the move hasn't happened yet. The longer it takes, the stronger it will be. I genuinely think it is a moment to derisk wherever possible
