TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
May 29, 2025Public Post
Bitcoin Monthly Bollinger Band Update – Less Than 72 Hours Left Bitcoin has made a new all-time high and is in the midst of working on a strong May monthly candlestick In the most ideal scenario for a strong bullish outcome, we want to see BTCUSD close May above $112,391 . This would confirm a close above the upper Bollinger Band. It is preferable to see a close even higher, towards $113,000 to $115,000. A close too far above the upper Bollinger Band could lead to some type of mean reversion before it continues higher. A close above the upper Bollinger Band is considered a BUY signal . The Bollinger Bands are calculated using a 20-period simple moving average and two bands set at +/- 2 standard deviations. It is rare for BTCUSD to make a move above +2 or below -2 and requires significant strength – hence why these moves often lead to sustainable breakouts and trends. Failure to close above the upper Bollinger Band in May doesn't necessarily mean we won't get such a move in the comin ... see more
Bitcoin Monthly Bollinger Band Update – Less Than 72 Hours Left Bitcoin has made a new all-time high and is in the midst of working on a strong May monthly candlestick In the most ideal scenario for a strong bullish outcome, we want to see BTCUSD close May above $112,391 . This would confirm a close above the upper Bollinger Band. It is preferable to see a close even higher, towards $113,000 to $115,000. A close too far above the upper Bollinger Band could lead to some type of mean reversion before it continues higher. A close above the upper Bollinger Band is considered a BUY signal . The Bollinger Bands are calculated using a 20-period simple moving average and two bands set at +/- 2 standard deviations. It is rare for BTCUSD to make a move above +2 or below -2 and requires significant strength – hence why these moves often lead to sustainable breakouts and trends. Failure to close above the upper Bollinger Band in May doesn't necessarily mean we won't get such a move in the coming months. It simply means we didn't get the BUY signal or the breakout quite yet. The 2019 peak and second-2021 peak both failed to get above the upper Bollinger Band, acting as non-confirmation of a sustainable trend . Unlike past cycles, the Bollinger Bands continue to tighten. Typically this late in a cycle they are in full expansion. Either this means that the true move in Bitcoin hasn't happened yet, or it's already over and volatility is diminishing. Overall, Bitcoin remains rather difficult to read from a technical standpoint.
TonySeverinoCMT
May 20, 2025Public Post
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count – May 20, 2025 By request, here is my updated Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 I believe we are still in a larger correction, but because the initial selloff was so sharp, we had a strong bounce first – however, I think ultimately a lower low is made as the larger degree (c) wave completes next The trend began with a leading contracting diagonal, then a 1/2 before the largest portion of the third wave began. The final sequence was an ending expanding diagonal consisting of five waves of abc. After the final wave v of 5, the correction began The SPX is retesting the underside boundary to that ending expanding diagonal now It can go as high as 6050 to touch the lower boundary of the uptrend channel before reversing As long as a new ATH isn't made, this count is valid. Invalidation above ATH
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count – May 20, 2025 By request, here is my updated Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 I believe we are still in a larger correction, but because the initial selloff was so sharp, we had a strong bounce first – however, I think ultimately a lower low is made as the larger degree (c) wave completes next The trend began with a leading contracting diagonal, then a 1/2 before the largest portion of the third wave began. The final sequence was an ending expanding diagonal consisting of five waves of abc. After the final wave v of 5, the correction began The SPX is retesting the underside boundary to that ending expanding diagonal now It can go as high as 6050 to touch the lower boundary of the uptrend channel before reversing As long as a new ATH isn't made, this count is valid. Invalidation above ATH