US economic data, official data so treat with a healthy scepticism: US Key Economic Indicators (Mid-2026) Indicator Latest Value Period Notes / Trend Nominal GDP ~$30.8 trillion Q1/Q2 2026 World's largest economy Real GDP Growth (Annual) +2.7% Recent quarter Solid but moderating Real GDP Growth Forecast 2026 +2.0% – +2.2% Full year 2026 Moderate growth expected Unemployment Rate 4.2% June 2026 Low, but slowly rising Inflation (CPI, year-over-year) 4.2% May 2026 Elevated due to energy and tariffs Core Inflation ~3.5–3.8% Recent Sticky services inflation PCE Inflation (Fed preferred) ~2.7–3.8% Recent Moving toward 2% target long-term Federal Funds Rate ~3.4% (projected end-2026) Current policy Fed in easing cycle 10-Year Treasury Yield ~4.1–4.3% Recent Moderate borrowing costs Non-Farm Payroll Growth +57k Recent month Hiring slowing Budget Deficit (% of GDP) ~5.5% (projected) FY 2026 Elevated Federal Debt-to-GDP ~120–130% Recent High and rising Consumer Spending Growth Moderate Recent Supported by wages, but cautious Manufacturing PMI Mixed (~50) Recent Near contraction/expansion line