US economic data, official data so treat with a healthy scepticism:
US Key Economic Indicators (Mid-2026)
Indicator | Latest Value | Period | Notes / Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Nominal GDP | ~$30.8 trillion | Q1/Q2 2026 | World's largest economy |
Real GDP Growth (Annual) | +2.7% | Recent quarter | Solid but moderating |
Real GDP Growth Forecast 2026 | +2.0% – +2.2% | Full year 2026 | Moderate growth expected |
Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | June 2026 | Low, but slowly rising |
Inflation (CPI, year-over-year) | 4.2% | May 2026 | Elevated due to energy and tariffs |
Core Inflation | ~3.5–3.8% | Recent | Sticky services inflation |
PCE Inflation (Fed preferred) | ~2.7–3.8% | Recent | Moving toward 2% target long-term |
Federal Funds Rate | ~3.4% (projected end-2026) | Current policy | Fed in easing cycle |
10-Year Treasury Yield | ~4.1–4.3% | Recent | Moderate borrowing costs |
Non-Farm Payroll Growth | +57k | Recent month | Hiring slowing |
Budget Deficit (% of GDP) | ~5.5% (projected) | FY 2026 | Elevated |
Federal Debt-to-GDP | ~120–130% | Recent | High and rising |
Consumer Spending Growth | Moderate | Recent | Supported by wages, but cautious |
Manufacturing PMI | Mixed (~50) | Recent | Near contraction/expansion line |