Russia is quietly rerouting its commodity infrastructure east
The Black Sea is becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Ukraine's attacks have already caused Russian oil exports through Black Sea terminals to fall, forcing Turkey to diversify toward Brazilian and Guyanese crude. The CPC system, which carries roughly 1.8% of global oil supply, has also been disrupted.
Russia's response is increasingly to move north. Hence the rapid development of the Northern Sea Route.This could eventually produce an enormous strategic shift:
Russia's western commodity infrastructure → vulnerable
Russia's Arctic infrastructure → increasingly important
China → primary customer
That is a geopolitical transformation hiding inside an energy story.